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. 2020 Dec 9;16(12):e1008431. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008431

Table 1. Short-term predictions on April 29, 2020 with Gompertz model.

Countries were sorted by number of reported cases. The top 10 countries in terms of cases cases were chosen from among the UE+EFTA+UK. Predictions are the number of cases at April 30, May 2, and May 4, respectively; lower and upper bounds can be seen inside brackets. In bold reported cases that were inside prediction intervals. K is the predicted final number of cases.

Countries Cases April 30 May 2
Prediction Reported Prediction Reported
Spain 213942 215365 [213942-220067] 215183 217465 [213942-222263] 217804
Italy 201505 203403 [201505-206418] 203591 206856 [203761-209951] 207428
United Kingdom 161145 165268 [162977-167560] 165221 172953 [170582 -175324] 177454
Germany 157641 158753 [157641-160596] 159119 160718 [158837-162598] 161703
France 126835 127941 [126835-130010] 128442 129882 [127761-132004] 130185
Belgium 49227 49698 [49227-51501] 49741 50616 [49227-52459] 50565
Netherlands 38416 38889 [38416-41086] 38802 39462 [38416-41696] 39791
Switzerland 29181 29279 [29181-29545] 29324 29433 [29181-29703] 29622
Portugal 24324 24654 [24324-25941] 24692 25113 [24324-26427] 25351
Ireland 19877 20253 [19877-21523] 20253 20791 [19877-22087] 20833
Countries Cases May 4 Parameter K
Prediction Reported
Spain 213942 219240 [214283-224197] 219205 239508
Italy 201505 209946 [206707-213185] 210717 232434
United Kingdom 161145 180122 [177596-182648] 186599 318644
Germany 157641 162370 [160428-164311] 163175 194071
France 126835 131599 [129385-133812] 131287 163290
Belgium 49227 51399 [49488-53309] 50990 67095
Netherlands 38416 39918 [38416-42206] 40571 52600
Switzerland 29181 29554 [29278-29830] 29822 32352
Portugal 24324 25497 [24324-26855] 25524 28376
Ireland 19877 21232 [19896-22569] 21506 39108