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. 2020 Nov 1;13(11 Suppl 1):s3–s14.

TABLE 2.

Key clinical findings from studies evaluating 31-GEP* in melanoma prognostication**

STUDY METHODS KEY FINDINGS
Clinical validity and performance—risk of recurrence
Gerami et al6 (January 2015) Multicenter (6 sites), archival, N=268, Stage I–IV melanoma
  • Clear and significant separation of risk between Class 1 and Class 2 result for DFS, DMFS, MSS, OS using KM analysis

Gerami et al25 (May 2015) Multicenter (7 sites), archival, N=217, Stage I–IV melanoma (all underwent SLNB)
  • GEP+SLNB identified >80% at risk for metastasis

  • Class 1 result has better NPV than node negative status.

Zager et al5 (February 2018) Multicenter (16 sites), archival, N=523
  • GEP was used in combination with SLNB to enhance identification of patients with high-risk melanoma. GEP predicted an additional 29 recurrences and 23 distant metastases, improving sensitivity of recurrences to 88% and distant metastasis to 91% compared to sensitivities of 65% for recurrences and 67% for distant metastases when using SLNB alone.

  • Multivariate analysis demonstrated that GEP, tumor thickness, and SLN status were independent, significant predictors of RFS and DMFS

Gastman et al22 (January 2019) Multicenter (18 sites), archival, N=690; combined non-overlapping cohort of patients from Gerami6, Gerami,25 and Zager5 that had 31-GEP results, staging information, and survival outcomes; Stage I–III melanoma Combined cohort (n=690)
  • Class 2B result independent and significant predictor of RFS, DMFS, and MSS

  • For combined cohort, NPV is 86% for RFS, 90% for DMFS and 98% for MSS.

Confirmed Node Negative (n=259)
  • 70% of patients (38 of 54) that developed distant metastasis were identified as high-risk Class 2

  • Class 2B result most significant predictor of RFS and DMFS by multivariate analysis.

Stage I-IIA (n=393)
  • Patients managed by dermatology who were considered low risk by AJCC staging and were identified as Class 2B: 43% developed recurrence, 28% developed distant metastasis, and 15% died from their melanoma. GEP result was the strongest and only independent predictor of risk across all end points.

  • Class 2B result most important predictor of RFS and DMFS and Class 2 result was the only significant predictor of MSS.

  • NPV >99% for patients with Stage I–IIA for 5-year MSS.

T1 (≤1mm) Tumors (n=281)
  • Accounts for 24–30% of melanoma related deaths. GEP is an additional, independent predictor of recurrence in this group.

  • Class 2B result was the only factor significantly associated with RFS in multivariate analysis when considering thickness, mitoses, ulceration, and SLNB positivity

  • NPV >99% for patients with thin tumors for 5-year MSS.

Greenhaw et al15 (March 2020) Meta-analysis of retrospective and prospective studies, N=1,479, Stage I–III
  • GEP consistently identifies melanoma patients at increased risk of metastasis, independent of clinicopathologic features and can be used in conjunction with traditional staging to improve patient risk stratification.

  • Meta-analysis results show that GEP Class 2 result is significantly associated with recurrence and distant metastasis.

  • Combining GEP results with SLNB status improved sensitivity and NPV.

Where to use the test—risk of recurrence
Marks et al26 (July 2019) Multicenter, archival, prospective, N=1,479, based on combined cohorts Gastman8, Greenhaw,15 Hsueh,37 and new archival cohort
  • Established a 0.3mm threshold for use of GEP to guide decisions and follow-up for risk of recurrence. Management changes occurred in 25% of cases where a test was ordered for patients ≤1 mm.

  • Class results were correlated with recurrence rates (RFS and DMFS) in large dataset, suggesting appropriate population includes those with tumor thickness ≥0.3mm.

  • First recurrent/distant metastatic event occurred in a 0.3mm tumor, so the RFS and DMFS was 100% for tumors <0.3mm thick

Clinical validity and performance—SLNB guidance
Vetto et al27 (January 2019) Multicenter (26 sites), prospective, n=1,421; limited to T1–T2 tumors, n= 1,065)
  • Patients older than 55 with a T1 or T2 tumor and a Class 1A signature have a less than 5% chance of being node positive.

  • Class 2B patients of all ages with a T1 or T2 melanoma have a greater than 10% risk of being SLNB positive and might benefit most from the procedure.

Prospective studies—risk of recurrence
Hsueh et al28 (January 2017) Multicenter (11 sites), prospective, N=322; combination of INTEGRATE and EXPAND studies that include both dermatological and surgical centers
  • Multivariate analysis showed Breslow depth, mitotic rate, and GEP Class 2 result as significant predictors of recurrence

  • SLNB identified 6 out of 12 (50%) patients with DM, while GEP identified 10 out of 12 (83%) patients with DM as Class 2.

  • NPV for Class 1 was 98-99% for RFS, DMFS ,and OS.

Greenhaw et al.8 (December 2018) Single center, retrospective/prospective, N=256, dermatologic practice
  • Patients with a GEP Class 2 result were 22 times more likely to metastasize compared to a Class 1 result.

  • NPV 99%

  • Post-study, this practice modified melanoma protocols to include GEP to inform management decisions (Class 1 received less intensive management; Class 2 more intensive)

Podlipnik et al29 (February 2019) Multicenter (5 sites), prospective, N=86, dermatologic practices in Spain
  • Study in Stage IB–IIC patients showed GEP accurately predicts risk of recurrence both independently and combined with AJCC staging.

  • GEP Class 2 was the only significant predictor of recurrence compared to AJCC stage and age (>50 years).

Keller et al9 (April 2019) Single center, prospective, N=159, surgical oncology practice
  • Independent, prospective study with over 3.5 years of follow-up, showing results consistent with previous validation studies.

  • GEP identified 79% of patients who had a recurrence as Class 2

  • NPV of 95% for recurrence; 99% for distant metastasis

  • Breslow depth, SLN status, and GEP Class 2 shown to be significant predictors of RFS and DMFS by multivariate analysis.

*DecisionDx-Melanoma® 31-GEP test (Castle Biosciences, Friendswood, Texas)

**2,678 unique patients from the studies listed in the table, with over 5,700 patients in entire body of evidence

AJCC: American Joint Committee on Cancer; DFS: disease-free survival; DM: distant metastasis; DMFS: distant metastasis-free survival; GEP: gene expression profile; KM: Kaplin-Meier; MSS: melanoma-specific survival; NPV: negative predictive value; N: number; OS: overall survival; RFS: recurrence-free survival; SLN: sentinel lymph node; SLNB: sentinel lymph node biopsy