Table 1.
Results of segmented regressions with increasing numbers of breaking points, fitted on the total number of cases and the total number of deaths reported in Spain and the two autonomous regions hosting its two largest cities (Madrid and Catalonia) from 25 February 2020 to 13 April 2020
| #Cases in Spain | #Cases in Madrid | #Cases in Catalonia | #Deaths in Spain | #Deaths in Madrid | #Deaths in Catalonia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best model | M5a | M5a | M4a | M5a | M4 | M3 | |
| Intercepts | a1 | 2.064 ± 0.046 | 2.253 ± 0.095 | 1.704 ± 0.067 | 0.282 ± 0.173 | 0.039 ± 0.221 | −0.947 ± 0.283 |
| Slopes | b1 | 0.3571 ± 0.0029 | 0.4383 ± 0.0111 | 0.3438 ± 0.0045 | 0.4166 ± 0.0153 | 0.4755 ± 0.0230 | 0.4106 ± 0.0231 |
| b2 | 0.2059 ± 0.0032 | 0.3156 ± 0.0072 | 0.2196 ± 0.0027 | 0.2472 ± 0.0032 | 0.2349 ± 0.0066 | 0.3245 ± 0.0122 | |
| b3 | 0.1669 ± 0.0009 | 0.1367 ± 0.0009 | 0.0893 ± 0.0012 | 0.1473 ± 0.0060 | 0.1440 ± 0.0069 | 0.1298 ± 0.0047 | |
| b4 | 0.0936 ± 0.0011 | 0.0852 ± 0.0015 | 0.0459 ± 0.0015 | 0.0985 ± 0.0047 | 0.0705 ± 0.0030 | 0.0375 ± 0.0020 | |
| b5 | 0.0584 ± 0.0009 | 0.0406 ± 0.0010 | 0.0291 ± 0.0017 | 0.0550 ± 0.0021 | 0.0325 ± 0.0017 | ||
| b6 | 0.0314 ± 0.0004 | 0.0170 ± 0.0021 | 0.0346 ± 0.0024 | ||||
| Breakpoints | u1 | 18.513 ± 0.102 | 10.046 ± 0.325 | 17.748 ± 0.180 | 13.192 ± 0.310 | 11.016 ± 0.291 | 14.640 ± 1.085 |
| (#days) | u2 | 23.923 ± 0.261 | 15.015 ± 0.089 | 24.751 ± 0.085 | 23.417 ± 0.199 | 19.610 ± 0.350 | 20.318 ± 0.191 |
| u3 | 31.521 ± 0.065 | 27.104 ± 0.146 | 32.679 ± 0.169 | 27.359 ± 0.349 | 24.670 ± 0.312 | 27.422 ± 0.223 | |
| u4 | 36.846 ± 0.119 | 33.625 ± 0.141 | 39.000 ± 0.420 | 31.714 ± 0.306 | 31.435 ± 0.386 | ||
| u5 | 41.322 ± 0.114 | 40.168 ± 0.273 | 37.395 ± 0.493 | ||||
| Goodness of fitb | χ2 | 284445.6 | 252.0 | 417.6 | 25796.5 | 11072.3 | 6568.4 |
| df | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 6 | |
| P | <1.00E-300 | 2.10E-48 | 3.28E-85 | <1.00E-300 | <1.00E-300 | <1.00E-300 | |
| Fit parameters | rDev | 307.4 | 271.3 | 144.5 | 18.5 | 36.7 | 32.6 |
| df | 37 | 32 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 29 | |
| Scale | 8.308 | 8.479 | 4.378 | 0.617 | 1.224 | 1.124 | |
| P | 2,48E-38 | 1,00E-39 | 6,70E-16 | 0.949618 | 0.1853 | 0.293924 | |
| AIC | 859.5 | 748.2 | 579.5 | 407.5 | 386.0 | 316.2 | |
| BIC | 882.2 | 769.6 | 593.1 | 444.9 | 402.9 | 329.0 |
Within this period, data series varies among variables and regions, since they start on the first day with >10 cases or >1 death. Therefore, start dates for each data series are 23 February 2020 for Spain, 1 March 2020 for Madrid, and 2 March 2020 for Catalonia in the case of cases, and 2 March, 4 March and 7 March for deaths. rDev: residual deviance.
a
Fitted using seed breakpoint values.
b
Poisson regression without breaking points as null model.