Figure 1.

Bias of mean serial interval in a simulation study of cases with tuberculosis and their household contacts. A) Censored at year 1; B) censored at year 2; C) censored during years 2–5. Red is the survival approach, blue is for a misspecified prior in the cure model, green is a flat prior in the cure model, purple is an informative prior in the cure model, and orange is the naive approach. Large biases not shown in this figure are: 1) censor at year 1, 3% disease rate, the survival approach with bias 4,826; 2) censor at year 2, 3% disease rate, the survival approach with bias 15,215, and a misspecified prior in the cure model with bias 12,224; 3) censor at year 2, 10% disease rate, the survival approach with bias 5,875; 4) censor at years 2–5, 3% disease rate, the survival approach with bias 65,862, and a misspecified prior in the cure model with bias 37,671; 5) censor at year 2–5, 10% disease rate, the survival approach with bias 19,149.