Table 1.

Model parameters and their estimated value.

Model parameter	Staff		Resident					Source
Age group	20–49	50–64	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90+
Transmission probability per contact during pre-symptomatic stage	0.0438 Calibrated to incidence data for LTCFs in Ontario							(Public Health Ontario, 2020)
Incubation period (days)	Log-Normal(shape: 1.434, scale: 0.661)							(Lauer et al., 2020)
Asymptomatic period (days)	Gamma(shape: 5, scale: 1)							Derived from (Gatto et al., 2020; He et al., 2020)
Pre-symptomatic period (days)	Gamma(shape: 1.058, scale: 2.174)							(He et al., 2020)
Infectious period from onset of symptoms (days)	Gamma(shape: 2.768, scale: 1.1563)							Derived from (R. Li et al., 2020)
Proportion of individuals with comorbidities	0.18	0.38	1					(Adams et al., 2020; Ontario Long Term Care Association, 2019)
Proportion of infected individuals developing asymptomatic infection	0.328	0.328	0.328	0.258	0.188	0.188	0.188	(Mizumoto et al., 2020)
Proportion of symptomatic cases developing severe illness	0.15	0.40	0.8					(Moghadas et al., 2020b)
Hospitalization rate of symptomatic cases	23.5%	23.5%	18.2%	15.1%	13.4%	9.3%	7.1%	(Public Health Ontario, 2020)
Case fatality rate	0.21%	0.21%	8.4%	18.8%	24.1%	27.9%	35.4%	(Public Health Ontario, 2020)
Length of hospital stay	Gamma(shape: 4.5, scale: 2.75)							(Sanche et al., 2020)