Figure 6.

Time series of 16 outputs of the reference model, 3 credible GGP models, and the empirical target data (mean target data +/− 95% confidence interval). The horizontal axis is the simulated years and each graph has a dashed vertical line that separates 20 calibration years and 10 validation years. The vertical axis is the value for each target with different units for prevalence (of current drinking in the past 12 months), frequency (average number of drinking days in the past 30 days among current drinkers), quantity (average grams of pure alcohol consumed per day among current drinkers in the past 30 days), heavy episodic drinking (average number of days 5+ drinks consumed in the past 30 days among current drinkers).