Table 3. Country-level adjusted associations between BCG status and log-transformed number of SARS-CoV2 cases.

	Mid-April 2020 (n = 85)			End of April 2020 (n = 85)			Mid-May 2020 (n = 85)
	Estimate	95% CI	p-value	Estimate	95% CI	p-value	Estimate	95% CI	p-value
BCG vaccination status
Current	Ref	-	-	Ref	-	-	Ref	-	-
Ever	0.21	-0.42, 0.85	0.51	-0.02	-0.72, 0.69	0.96	-0.10	-0.88, 0.68	0.79
Never	0.25	-0.36, 0.87	0.42	-0.11	-0.80, 0.58	0.75	-0.30	-1.07, 0.46	0.43
Controlled for:
Log gross domestic product per capita ($)1	-0.17	-0.48, 0.14	0.28	-0.09	-0.43, 0.24	0.58	-0.08	-0.45, 0.29	0.67
Log population size (millions)	0.85	0.56, 1.15	<0.0001	0.87	0.53, 1.20	<0.0001	0.92	0.56, 1.29	<0.0001
Proportion of population over 65 years (%)	0.04	-0.001, 0.07	0.06	0.02	-0.02, 0.06	0.37	-0.01	-0.05, 0.04	0.79
Log tests per capita	0.65	0.44, 0.85	<0.0001	0.68	0.45, 0.91	<0.0001	0.71	0.44, 0.96	<0.0001
Stringency level at 100th case	-0.01	-0.02, 0.001	0.10	-0.01	-0.02, -0.001	0.03	-0.01	-0.03, -0.003	0.01
Smoking prevalence	-0.01	-0.02, 0.01	0.57	0.01	-0.03, 0.01	0.42	-0.01	-0.03, 0.01	0.38
Difference between date of 100th case and end of May 2020 (days)	0.07	0.04, 0.10	<0.0001	0.06	0.02, 0.09	<0.001	0.05	0.005, 0.09	0.03

¹Estimates as at 2018;

²Estimates as at 2018;

³Estimates as at 2018;

⁴Estimates as at 11 June 2020;

⁵Estimates as at 2018