Table 3. Association of the variability quartiles and the outcomes according to the slope of GFR (slope index 10%).
| Variability Quartile | Events (N) | Follow-up duration (person-years) | Incidence rate (per 1000 person years) | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI | |||||||
| Decline (10%) | Q1-3 | 2136 | 2371675 | 0.90 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 1331 | 1147050 | 1.16 | 1.10 (1.02–1.18) | 1.04 (0.96–1.12) | 1.02 (0.94–1.09) | |
| Stable | Q1-3 | 2973 | 3290320 | 0.90 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 325 | 278360 | 1.17 | 1.10 (0.98–1.24) | 1.09 (0.97–1.22) | 1.05 (0.94–1.18) | |
| Increase (10%) | Q1-3 | 2509 | 2820661 | 0.89 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 1423 | 1385482 | 1.03 | 1.02 (0.95–1.09) | 1.03 (0.96–1.10) | 0.99 (0.92–1.06) | |
| P for interaction | 0.299 | 0.797 | 0.653 | ||||
| Stroke | |||||||
| Decline (10%) | Q1-3 | 2031 | 2371730 | 0.86 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 1510 | 1146765 | 1.32 | 1.20 (1.12–1.28) | 1.11 (1.03–1.19) | 1.09 (1.01–1.17) | |
| Stable | Q1-3 | 2790 | 3290426 | 0.85 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 309 | 278335 | 1.11 | 0.99 (0.88–1.12) | 0.98 (0.87–1.10) | 0.95 (0.85–1.07) | |
| Increase (10%) | Q1-3 | 2193 | 2821038 | 0.78 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 1440 | 1385358 | 1.04 | 1.07 (1.00–1.14) | 1.06 (0.99–1.14) | 1.03 (0.97–1.11) | |
| P for interaction | 0.022 | 0.048 | 0.046 | ||||
| Death | |||||||
| Decline (10%) | Q1-3 | 2636 | 2374566 | 1.11 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 1858 | 1148839 | 1.62 | 1.24 (1.12–1.32) | 1.22 (1.14–1.30_ | 1.20 (1.13–1.28) | |
| Stable | Q1-3 | 3462 | 3294387 | 1.05 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 363 | 278788 | 1.30 | 1.01 (0.91–1.13) | 1.03 (0.93–1.15) | 1.02 (0.91–1.14) | |
| Increase (10%) | Q1-3 | 3031 | 2824138 | 1.07 | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) | 1 (reference) |
| Q4 | 1867 | 1387402 | 1.35 | 1.13 (1.06–1.19) | 1.07 (1.01–1.14) | 1.07 (1.01–1.13) | |
| P for interaction | 0.004 | <0.001 | 0.001 | ||||
Model 1: Adjusted for age, and sex.
Model 2: Adjusted for age, sex, smoking, baseline eGFR, underlying diabetes.
Model 3: Adjusted for model 2 plus BMI, drinking, income, underlying hypertension, and dyslipidemia.
eGFR = estimated glomerular filtration rate, MI = myocardial infarction, Q = quartile.