Figure 1.

Disease progression. Rectangles represent states of the disease and arrows the transition between states. $d_{\mathit{state}}^A$ denotes the duration of the disease state given the age A of the agent. Agents with severe symptomatic disease spend $d_{\mathit{sev}}$ days at home before being admitted to the hospital for a duration of $d_{\mathit{hos}}^A$ days. Transition between disease states occurs with age dependent probabilities; where ${\alpha }^A$ and $1-{\alpha }^A$ denote the probability of an agent of age A being symptomatic and asymptomatic, respectively. ${\delta }^A$ denotes the probability for a symptomatic agent to progress into severe disease; ${\gamma }^{A,G}$ denotes the probability of a severely ill agent of age A and gender G to die. For details of parameter values see: Supplementary Table S1.