Figure 8. Comparison of analytically calculated cumulative distribution function (CDF) for time of first successful de novo mutation with simulations.

Black line shows analytically calculated CDF. Blue cumulative histogram shows distribution of new variant mutation times for 250,000 simulations from the stochastic within-host model with (A) an immediate recall response ($t_M=0$) and (B) a realistic recall response at 48 hr post-infection ($t_M=2$). Other model parameters as in Table 1. Note that time of first successful mutation tends to be later with an immediate recall response than with a delayed recall response. This occurs because the cumulative number of viral replication events grows more slowly in time at the start of the infection because of the strong, immediate recall response.