Table 2.
Sensitivities, Specificities, Negative and Positive Predictive Values, Positive and Negative Likelihood Ratios for NEWS, COVID‐GRAM, ISARIC‐4C, and qCSI Scoring Systems for Predicting Death of COVID‐19 Older Patients
| Score | ROC AUC | Cut off value | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | +LR | −LR | PPV | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEWS | 0.764 (0.700–0.819) | >4 | 66.7 (50.5–80.4) | 69.0 (61.5–75.9) | 2.1 (1.6–2.9) | 0.5 (0.3–0.7) | 35.0 (28.3–42.4) | 89.2 (84.2–92.8) |
| COVID‐GRAM | 0.785 (0.723–0.838) | >17.7 | 88.1 (74.4–96.0) | 61.3 (53.5–68.7) | 2.3 (1.8–2.8) | 0.2 (0.1–0.4) | 36.3 (31.3–41.5) | 95.4 (90.0–97.9) |
| ISARIC‐4C | 0.799 (0.738–0.851) | >8 | 88.1 (74.4–96.0) | 55.9 (48.1–63.6) | 2.0 (1.6–2.5) | 0.2 (0.1–0.5) | 33.3 (29.0–38.0) | 94.9 (89.1–97.7) |
| qCSI | 0.749 (0.685–0.806) | >5 | 69.0 (52.9–82.4) | 77.4 (70.3–83.5) | 3.0 (2.2–4.3) | 0.4 (0.3–0.6) | 43.3 (35.1–51.9) | 90.9 (86.3–94.1) |
Note: Optimal cutoff was chosen according to Youden index J. Differences among area under ROC curves did not reach statistical significance.
Abbreviations: NEWS, National early warning score; COVID‐GRAM, COVID‐Gram Critical Illness Risk Score; ISARIC‐4C, International Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Consortium Clinical Characterization Protocol‐Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium; qCSI, quick COVID severity index; +LR, positive likelihood ratio; −LR, negative likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, Positive predictive value.