Table 3.

Cross-Validated Models for the Detection or Prediction of Asthma Endpoints – Results

Predictor and Metric	Detection of Weeks with Uncontrolled Asthma (O2)a,b	Detection of Weeks with Deteriorations in Asthma Control (O3)a,c	Prediction of Asthma Attacks X Days (dx) Before the Event (O4)d,e
			d0	d−1	d−2	d−3	d−4	d−5	d−6	d−7
Sleep quality
BAC	0.68	0.56	0.68	0.65	0.66	0.69	0.68	0.63	0.57	0.46
Sensitivity	0.66	0.63	0.75	0.62	0.62	1	0.62	0.50	0.50	0.12
Specificity	0.69	0.48	0.61	0.69	0.70	0.38	0.73	0.76	0.65	0.79
Nocturnal cough (entire night)
BAC	0.61	0.71	0.63	0.69	0.62	0.67	0.59	0.58	0.53	0.40
Sensitivity	0.54	0.60	0.62	0.75	0.62	0.75	0.50	0.50	0.50	0
Specificity	0.67	0.82	0.63	0.63	0.61	0.58	0.68	0.66	0.57	0.79
Nocturnal cough (first 30 minutes after going to bed)
BAC	0.62	0.54	0.64	0.64	0.64	0.64	0.70	0.61	0.45	0.62
Sensitivity	0.59	0.35	0.62	0.62	0.62	0.62	0.75	0.62	0.12	0.50
Specificity	0.64	0.74	0.66	0.66	0.66	0.66	0.66	0.60	0.78	0.73
Nocturnal cough (after 30 minutes until end of night)
BAC	0.60	0.65	0.69	0.65	0.65	0.71	0.60	0.50	0.64	0.40
Sensitivity	0.47	0.45	0.62	0.75	0.75	0.88	0.50	0.50	0.75	0
Specificity	0.72	0.84	0.75	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.69	0.50	0.53	0.79
Sleep quality and nocturnal cough (entire night) combined
BAC	0.68	0.65	0.72	0.70	0.71	0.72	0.72	0.64	0.67	0.45
Sensitivity	0.66	0.48	0.88	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.50	0.62	0.25
Specificity	0.69	0.81	0.57	0.64	0.66	0.69	0.69	0.77	0.71	0.65
Sleep quality and nocturnal cough (first 30 minutes after going to bed) combined
BAC	0.68	0.55	0.64	0.65	0.63	0.72	0.74	0.71	0.58	0.40
Sensitivity	0.66	0.62	0.88	0.62	0.62	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.50	0.25
Specificity	0.69	0.48	0.41	0.67	0.64	0.69	0.72	0.68	0.66	0.55
Sleep quality and nocturnal cough (after 30 minutes until end of night) combined
BAC	0.68	0.57	0.73	0.69	0.70	0.72	0.72	0.64	0.67	0.52
Sensitivity	0.66	0.29	0.88	0.75	0.75	0.75	0.88	0.50	0.62	0.25
Specificity	0.69	0.84	0.59	0.64	0.66	0.69	0.56	0.78	0.71	0.80

Notes: All reported figures are averages over the five (O2 and O3) or eight (O4) folds. ^aModel: Decision Tree. ^bPositive outcome class: Uncontrolled asthma (ie, ACT score < 20; 116 out of 308 study weeks). ^cPositive outcome class: Clinically meaningful deterioration in asthma control (ie, a decrease in ACT score by > 2 points; 29 out of 227 study weeks). ^dModel: Cut-offs. ^ePositive outcome class: Asthma attack (ie, 8 out of 2008 study days). ACT, Asthma Control Test. BAC, Balanced accuracy (values over 0.70, a threshold for usefulness,³⁴ are printed in bold).

Abbreviation: O, objective.