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. 2020 Dec 22;10:22365. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-79039-x

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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The figure reports the logistic model of epidemic cycle built upon the end of March 2020 data, with the indication of backward and forward prediction confidence intervals (A). (B) Focuses on backward prediction pointing to the very beginning of epidemic in October 2019.