TABLE 2.
Current and projected net changes for population at risk from year‐round transmission risk (12 months). All values are given in millions; future projections are averaged across general circulation models, broken down by year (2050) and representative concentration pathway (RCP: 4.5, 8.5), and are given as net change from current population at risk. Totals are given globally, or across all regions except for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)
| Region | 2015 baseline | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | ||
| Asia (Central) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asia (East) | 0 | 0 | 0.005 |
| Asia (High‐Income Pacific) | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Asia (South) | 104.5 | 111.4 | 107.6 |
| Asia (Southeast) | 356.7 | 164.0 | 179.0 |
| Australasia | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Caribbean | 7.5 | 15.2 | 19.1 |
| Europe (Central) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Europe (Eastern) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Europe (Western) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latin America (Andean) | 5.2 | 8.8 | 10.2 |
| Latin America (Central) | 43.7 | 44.3 | 55.0 |
| Latin America (Southern) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latin America (Tropical) | 35.0 | 16.5 | 23.2 |
| North Africa and Middle East | 5.0 | −1.3 | −0.01 |
| North America (High Income) | 0 | 0.001 | 0.01 |
| Oceania | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| Sub‐Saharan Africa (Central) | 28.0 | 92.0 | 106.6 |
| Sub‐Saharan Africa (East) | 39.7 | 106.8 | 148.3 |
| Sub‐Saharan Africa (Southern) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sub‐Saharan Africa (West) | 227.4 | 281.8 | 261.5 |
| Total | 857.9 | 844.3 | 915.9 |
| Total outside LAC | 766.5 | 759.5 | 808.3 |