TABLE 3.
Top 10 regional increases. Regions, as defined by the Global Burden of Disease study (Figure S1), are ranked based on millions of people exposed for the first time to any (1 or more months) transmission risk, or to year round (12 months) transmission risk; parentheticals give the net change (first exposures minus populations escaping transmission risk). All values are given for the worst‐case scenario (RCP 8.5). Totals are given globally, or across all regions except for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)
| Any transmission risk | Year‐round transmission risk | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Sub‐Saharan Africa (East) | 191.1 (344.9) | 1. Sub‐Saharan Africa (West) | 135.1 (261.5) |
| 2. North America (High Income) | 187.4 (213.8) | 2. Sub‐Saharan Africa (East) | 138.6 (148.3) |
| 3. Asia (East) | 172.1 (83.8) | 3. Asia (South) | 127.9 (107.6) |
| 4. Europe (Western) | 123.2 (131.3) | 4. Asia (Southeast) | 108.5 (179.0) |
| 5. North Africa and the Middle East | 107.0 (275.3) | 5. Sub‐Saharan Africa (Central) | 88.8 (106.6) |
| 6. Europe (Eastern) | 91.8 (91.0) | 6. Latin America (Central) | 44.3 (54.9) |
| 7. Europe (Central) | 67.7 (67.7) | 7. Latin America (Tropical) | 28.2 (23.2) |
| 8. Latin America (Tropical) | 60.1 (66.9) | 8. Caribbean | 18.6 (19.1) |
| 9. Latin America (Central) | 51.5 (76.0) | 9. Latin America (Andean) | 10.0 (10.2) |
| 10. Sub‐Saharan Africa (Central) | 50.8 (106.3) | 10. North Africa and the Middle East | 4.6 (−0.08) |
| Total (across all 21 regions) | 1,326.5 (2,712.5) | Total (across all 21 regions) | 736.9 (915.9) |
| Total (outside LAC) | 1,168.5 (2,518.9) | Total (outside LAC) | 635.6 (808.3) |