Table 3.
Model Performance Measures for All‐Cause Death in the Entire Cohort, Never Smokers, Former Smokers, and Current Smokers
| Risk Factors and Biomarkers | C Statistics | ∆C Statistics | Continuous NRI, 95% CI | P Value | IDI, 95% CI | P Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entire cohort | ||||||
| Base model* | 0.789 | … | … | … | ||
| GDF‐15 | 0.776 | … | … | … | ||
| Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP† | 0.803 | 0.015 | 0.386 (0.257 to 0.514) | <0.001 | 0.017 (0.006 to 0.028) | 0.003 |
| Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP+GDF‐15‡ | 0.826 | 0.022 | 0.276 (0.147 to 0.405) | <0.001 | 0.036 (0.021 to 0.051) | <0.001 |
| Never smokers | ||||||
| Base model* | 0.815 | … | … | … | ||
| NT‐proBNP | 0.734 | … | … | … | ||
| cTnI | 0.673 | … | … | … | ||
| hs‐CRP | 0.646 | … | … | … | ||
| GDF‐15 | 0.788 | … | … | … | ||
| Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP† | 0.827 | 0.011 | 0.349 (0.129 to 0.569) | 0.002 | 0.008 (−0.006 to 0.021) | 0.246 |
| Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP+GDF‐15‡ | 0.847 | 0.020 | 0.465 (0.245 to 0.684) | <0.001 | 0.028 (0.006 to 0.049) | 0.010 |
| Former smokers | ||||||
| Base model* | 0.793 | … | … | … | ||
| NT‐proBNP | 0.723 | … | … | … | ||
| cTnI | 0.673 | … | … | … | ||
| hs‐CRP | 0.640 | … | … | … | ||
| GDF‐15 | 0.782 | … | … | … | ||
| Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP† | 0.815 | 0.022 | 0.275 (0.085 to 0.464) | 0.004 | 0.059 (0.027 to 0.090) | <0.001 |
| Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP+GDF‐15‡ | 0.838 | 0.023 | 0.114 (−0.075 to 0.303) | 0.236 | 0.025 (0.005 to 0.046) | 0.013 |
| Current smokers | ||||||
| Base model* | 0.796 | … | … | … | ||
| NT‐proBNP | 0.701 | … | … | … | ||
| cTnI | 0.577 | … | … | … | ||
| hs‐CRP | 0.629 | … | … | … | ||
| GDF‐15 | 0.735 | … | … | … | ||
| Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP† | 0.832 | 0.036 | 0.380 (0.084 to 0.676) | 0.012 | 0.023 (−0.004 to 0.05) | 0.096 |
| Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP+GDF‐15‡ | 0.842 | 0.010 | 0.233 (−0.066 to 0.532) | 0.126 | 0.022 (−0.003 to 0.05) | 0.090 |
Follow‐up results are truncated after 3 years. The biomarkers were modeled as continuous variables (for 1 SD increase). The ΔC statistic, continuous NRI, and IDI show the change in model performance from “Base model” or “Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP.” cTnI indicates contemporary sensitive cardiac troponin‐I; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; GDF‐15, growth differentiation factor 15; hs‐CRP, high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; NRI, net reclassification improvement; and NT‐proBNP, N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide.
The base model is based on age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, eGFR, the Gensini score, previous myocardial infarction, previous stroke, previous heart failure hospitalization, atrial fibrillation, malignancies, anemia, antihypertensive drug use, statin use, and aspirin use.
Evaluated the change of model performance from the “Base model.”
Evaluated the change of model performance from the “Base model+NT‐proBNP+cTnI+hs‐CRP.”