Table 4.
Cumulative number of new infection cases as predicted by different models. Period: 15 August–15 September. Values in red correspond to the model with the smallest absolute error on that prediction, with respect to the other models.
| Region | Real Cases | Simple Toy Model | Negative Binomial | Cognitive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abruzzo | 480 | 270 | 463 | 293 |
| Basilicata | 135 | 101 | 91 | 117 |
| Calabria | 383 | 275 | 298 | 270 |
| Campania | 3959 | 391 | 1466 | 2007 |
| Emilia-Romagna | 3325 | 1430 | 2133 | 2484 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia | 677 | 195 | 362 | 348 |
| Lazio | 4303 | 334 | 1619 | 2168 |
| Liguria | 1504 | 405 | 907 | 889 |
| Lombardia | 6239 | 571 | 3349 | 4329 |
| Marche | 542 | 379 | 513 | 470 |
| Molise | 84 | 18 | 37 | 101 |
| Piemonte | 1817 | 229 | 781 | 983 |
| Puglia | 1689 | 560 | 922 | 857 |
| Sardegna | 1452 | 395 | 491 | 610 |
| Sicilia | 1625 | 372 | 1254 | 1034 |
| Toscana | 2412 | 907 | 1314 | 1557 |
| Trentino-Alto Adige | 869 | 1105 | 472 | 778 |
| Umbria | 546 | 212 | 223 | 199 |
| Valle d’Aosta | 46 | 138 | 40 | 67 |
| Veneto | 3852 | 999 | 2252 | 2557 |