Table 2.
Correlates of Swiss exports between January and June 2020
| % Change in exports compared to 2019 | Monthly data | Quarterly data | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
| Consumer | 4.57 ∗ | 4.33 + | 5.31 ∗ | 5.47 ∗∗ | ||||||
| Confidence (in SD) | (2.15) | (2.20) | (2.51) | (2.57) | ||||||
| Covid-19 cases | − 2.21 ∗∗ | − 2.23 ∗∗ | − 2.56 | − 0.89 ∗∗ | − 0.86 ∗∗ | − 0.22 | ||||
| per 1000 people | (0.74) | (0.83) | (2.18) | (0.28) | (0.30) | (1.13) | ||||
| Stringency index | − 0.02 | 0.02 | − 0.07 | − 0.10 | − 0.08 | − 0.22 | ||||
| countermeasures | (0.15) | (0.15) | (0.16) | (0.15) | (0.16) | (0.15) | ||||
| R2 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Trading partners | 40 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 40 | 40 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 40 |
| Observations | 215 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 215 | 79 | 110 | 110 | 110 | 79 |
Notes: The dependent variable is the percentage change in monthly (col. 1–5) or quarterly (col. 6–10) exports compared to 2019. All models include time period fixed effects. Covid-19 cases per 1000 people denotes the increase in a country’s confirmed Covid-19 cases per 1000 inhabitants during that month/quarter. Stringency index countermeasures represents the average stringency score of a country during that month/quarter taking values between 0 (no measures) and 100 (maximum stringency). Consumer confidence represents the standardized monthly/quarterly deviation from the long-term mean in a country’s consumer confidence. We restrict the sample to countries with a minimum annual trade value of 500 million CHF and monthly trade values of at least 25 million CHF in 2019. Descriptive statistics are reported in Table 5 in the Appendix. Standard errors (in parentheses) are clustered by trading partners. +p < 0.10, *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01