Table 2.
Health, Budgetary, and Economic Outcomes With Sodium Reduction Policy
| Outcomes (ages ≥35 years) | Without FDA goal achieved | With FDA goal achieved | 10-year difference | (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At 10 years | ||||
| SBP (mean, mmHg) | 127.9 | 125.4 | −2.4 | (−2.4, −2.4) |
| SBP ≥140 mmHg, % | 17.1 | 13.3 | −3.8 | (−3.9, −3.7) |
| Individuals with SBP ≥140 mmHg (millions) | 31.4 | 24.5 | −6.9 | (−7.0, −6.8) |
| Treated SBP (mean, mmHg) | 139.0 | 135.9 | −3.1 | (−3.1, −3.1) |
| Treated with SBP ≥140 mmHg, % | 42.7 | 33.9 | −8.9 | (−9.0, −8.7) |
| Individuals with SBP 120–139 mmHg (millions) | 62.7 | 54.6 | −8.1 | (−8.3, −8.0) |
| Over the 10-year period | ||||
| Person-years above goal (millions) | 313.7 | 272.1 | −41.6 | (−42.0, −41.0) |
| Incident MI (thousands) | 7,628 | 7,409 | −218.9 | (−241.1, −196.6) |
| Incident strokea (thousands) | 5,620 | 5,335 | −284.5 | (−307.1, −262.0) |
| Incident CVD events (thousands) | 26,142 | 25,247 | −895.2 | (−939.5, −851.0) |
| Incident CVD death (thousands) | 8,839 | 8,587 | −252.5 | (−273.0, −232.0) |
| CVD costs (billions $) | ||||
| Total | 3,244 | 3,207 | 36.9 | (−39.1, −34.7) |
| Private insurance | 1,335 | 1,321 | 13.4 | (−14.8, −112.9) |
| Medicare | 1,307 | 1,289 | 18.4 | (−20.0, −16.9) |
| Medicaid | 103 | 102 | 0.9 | (−1.2, −0.6) |
| Uninsured | 424 | 421 | 3.5 | (−4.2, −2.9) |
| Other insurance | 74 | 73 | −0.6 | (−0.9, −0.4) |
| Total productivity (billions $) | 106,469 | 106,487 | 18.2 | (15.8, 20.7) |
Note: Treated SBP indicates the mean systolic blood pressure for persons who are taking antihypertensive medications. The Incident CVD events rows combine incident MI, incident stroke, incident hospitalization for congestive heart failure, onset of angina pectoris, and onset of intermittent claudication. Private insurance includes commercial plans that cover medical expenses, as commonly obtained through employers or the private marketplace in the U.S. Medicare is a public program that primarily provides health insurance for persons aged ≥65 years in the U.S. Medicaid is a public program that provides health insurance to persons with inadequate income or resources to pay for health care in the U.S. Uninsured individuals have no insurance plan to pay for health care and are themselves responsible for the entirety of medical care bills. Other insured individuals may have coverage for medical expenses from a variety of less common sources, such as related to military service or insurance for work site or motor vehicle injury. The 95% CI was calculated from the distributional properties of the simulated population (i.e., mean and SE) and is a function of the sample size (1 million individuals). All costs are in undiscounted 2017 U.S. dollars.
Incident stroke includes both incident ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke.
CVD, cardiovascular disease; FDA, U.S. Food and Drug Administration; MI, myocardial infarction; SBP, systolic blood pressure.