Table 4.

Results of Sensitivity Analyses on 10-Year Cumulative Differences Owing to Sodium Policy

Scenarios	Person-years SBP ≥140 mmHg (millions)	Incident MI (thousands)	Incident stroke (thousands)	Incident CVD death (thousands)	Disease costs (billions $)
Base case (primary analysis)	−42	−219	−285	−252	37
Policy variations
2-year goal met only	−23	−113	−129	−134	21
10-year goal met immediately	−66	−336	−431	−389	61
Each person meets sodium goal	−46	−238	−295	−260	39
Effect of sodium reduction on BP (sodium sensitivity)
Bibbins-Domingo et al.10 (low bound)	−45	−220	−266	−238	36
Bibbins-Domingo et al.10 (high bound)	−71	−356	−413	−366	57
Coxson etal.8	−42	−205	−247	−231	33
He et al.39 (pooled estimate)	−42	−159	−178	−164	25
−25%	−31	−162	−209	−192	27
+25%	−52	−280	−350	−306	46
Disease costs
−25%					27
+25					46

Note: The “Each person meets sodium goal” results reflect a sensitivity scenario in which all individuals reduce their sodium consumption at least to the stated goal over 10 years (2,300 mg/day), and those meeting or exceeding sodium reductions below the 2,300 mg/day target in <10 years under the base case scenario continue to do so. This contrasts from the base case scenario that involves population average sodium consumption being reduced to 2,300 mg/day. All costs are presented in undiscounted 2017 U.S. dollars.

CVD, cardiovascular disease; MI, myocardial infarction; SBP, systolic blood pressure.