Table 3.

Estimated probability and expected time of being in each state of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectory after 1, 5, and 10 years given one’s initial state.

Initial state	Estimated probability of being in each status (95% CI)			Expected time spent in each trajectory (years)
	Declining	Stable	Increasing	Declining	Stable	Increasing
1 year
Declining	0.88 (0.85-0.90)	0.08 (0.06-0.11)	0.04 (0.03-0.06)	0.937	0.042	0.022
Stable	0.01 (0.009-0.02)	0.99 (0.98-0.99)	0.002 (0.0008-0.004)	0.006	0.993	0.0009
Increasing	0.15 (0.10-0.22)	0.10 (0.06-0.16)	0.76 (0.69-0.81)	0.079	0.050	0.871
5 years
Declining	0.56 (0.46-0.71)	0.34 (0.23-0.53)	0.09 (0.05-0.17)	3.748	0.924	0.328
Stable	0.05 (0.03-0.08)	0.94 (0.91-0.98)	0.009 (0.003-0.02)	0.135	4.842	0.022
Increasing	0.35 (0.18-0.66)	0.37 (0.18-0.75)	0.28 (0.16-0.45)	1.210	1.042	2.748
10 years
Declining	0.37 (0.23-0.66)	0.55 (0.33-1.00)	0.08 (0.03-0.21)	6.022	3.201	0.777
Stable	0.08 (0.05-0.15)	0.91 (0.84-1.00)	0.02 (0.005-0.05)	0.459	9.457	0.084
Increasing	0.31 (0.12-0.82)	0.58 (0.24-1.00)	0.11 (0.04-0.33)	2.899	3.467	3.634

CI = confidence interval.