Table 1.
Key input parameters and data sources for the Diet and Cancer Outcome Model (DiCOM) a
| Model input parameters | Description | Data sources | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population demographic characteristics of US adults | Age, sex, and race/ethnicity distribution among US adults aged 20 years and older, stratified by income | NHANES 2013-2016 | |
| Percent of overweight or obese (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) among US adults | Age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence of overweight and obesity among US adults aged 20 years and older, stratified by income | NHANES 2013-2016 | |
| SSB consumption among US adults | Age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific SSB consumption among US adults aged 20+ years and older, stratified by income | NHANES 2013-2016 Supplementary Methods (available online) Supplementary Table 3 (available online) | |
| Policy specification | The national penny-per-ounce tax on SSB | Supplementary Table 2 (available online) | |
| Policy effect size estimates, % (95 % CI) | Change in SSB intake per 10% change in price |
Supplementary Methods (available online) Supplementary Table 4 (available online) Wada et al., 2015 (22) |
|
| Total US adult population | −0.66 (-0.95 to -0.36) | ||
| Low-income US adults (FPIR ≤ 1.85) | −1.03 (-1.58 to -0.47) | ||
| Higher-income US adults (FPIR > 1.85) | −0.51 (-0.95 to -0.36) | ||
| Policy implementation costs, $ millions, annually |
Supplementary Methods (available online) Supplementary Table 5 (available online) Reports from Muni services |
||
| Government administration costs | 1% of SSB tax revenue | ||
| Industry compliance costs | 1% of SSB tax revenue | ||
| Cancer incidence and survival | Incidence and 5-year relative survival rates for each cancer type by age, sex, and race/ethnicity |
SEER Supplementary Methods (available online) |
|
| Effect size estimates of SSB-BMI, kg/m2 | β (95% CI), per 1 serving/d increase in SSB |
Mozzafarian et al., 2011 (23) |
|
| Individuals with BMI <25 kg/m 2 | 0.10 (0.05 to 0.15) | ||
| Individuals with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m 2 | 0.23 (0.14 to 0.32) | ||
| Relative risk (95% CI) estimates of BMI-cancerrisk, per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI | |||
| Endometrial cancer | 1.50 (1.42 to 1.59) | WCRF/AICR, 2018 (24) Lauby-Secretan et al., 2016 (2) | |
| Esophageal adenocarcinoma | 1.48 (1.35 to 1.62) | ||
| Kidney cancer | 1.30 (1.25 to 1.35) | ||
| Liver cancer | 1.30 (1.16 to 1.46) | ||
| Gallbladder cancer | 1.25 (1.15 to 1.37) | ||
| Stomach cancer (gastric cardia) | 1.23 (1.07 to 1.40) | ||
| Female breast cancer (postmenopausal) | 1.12 (1.09 to 1.15) | ||
| Pancreatic cancer | 1.10 (1.07 to 1.14) | ||
| Multiple myeloma | 1.09 (1.03 to 1.16) | ||
| Advanced prostate cancer | 1.08 (1.04 to 1.12) | ||
| Thyroid cancer | 1.06 (1.02 to 1.10) | ||
| Ovarian cancer | 1.06 (1.02 to 1.11) | ||
| Colorectal cancer | 1.05 (1.03 to 1.07) | ||
| Health-related costs, $ million, per year | Health-related cost estimates for individuals with cancer for each cancer type and the general population based on published literature | Supplementary Methods (available online) | |
| Direct medical costs | Direct medical costs associated with cancer by the phase of care (initial, continuing, and end year of life) for individuals with cancer, and direct medical costs for the general population, by sex and age (younger than 65 and 65 years and older) |
SEER-Medicare Mariotto et al., 2011 (4) Hogan et al., 2001 (25) |
|
| Productivity loss costs | Productivity loss costs for individuals with cancer and the general population |
MEPS Zheng et al., 2016 (26) Guy et al., 2013 (27) |
|
| Patient time costs | Patient time costs for individuals with cancer and the general population |
MEPS Yabroff et al., 2014 (28) |
|
| Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) | HRQOL estimates for each cancer type based on published literature assessing HRQOL using EQ-5D |
Supplementary Methods (available online) Supplementary Table 7 (available online) |
|
SSBs were defined as any nonalcoholic, carbonated, or noncarbonated beverages with added caloric sweetener including sodas, energy drinks, sports drinks, and fruit drinks. (23) Dietary intake of SSBs was derived from 1 or 2 valid 24-hour dietary recalls using NHANES 2013-2016 data. The mean intake of 8 oz serving/day of SSB consumption was estimated for each of the 32 demographic subgroups and by income status. AICR = American Institute for Cancer Research; BMI = Body Mass Index; CI = Confidence Interval; MEPS = Medical Expenditures Panel Survey; NHANES = National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; FPIR = Federal Poverty-to-Income Ratio; RR = Relative Risk; SEER = Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; SSB = Sugar-sweetened Beverages; WCRF = World Cancer Research Fund.