Fig. 3.

Fitted models based on the exponential decay model (Eq. (5); left column) and Gompertz model (Eq. (7); right column) using epidemic data for the four successive time phases P1, P2, P3, and P4, respectively. The expected values (continuous red line) and the 95% credibility interval (red dotted line) for the fitted models are displayed along with the observed data of the outbreak (empty black circles).