Fig. 4.

Epidemic forecasts based on the exponential decay model (Eq. (5); left column) and Gompertz model (Eq. (7); right column) calibrated using the epidemic data for scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The expected values (continuous red line) and the 95% credibility interval (red dotted line) for the calibrated models are displayed along with the observed data of the epidemic, both those used for the estimation of the models (empty black circles) and those after modeling (filled black circles).