. 2020 Dec 30;6:212–221. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.12.007

Table 2.

Estimated parameters with the exponential decay model applied to $W R_{t}$ (Eq. (5)) and the Gompertz model applied to the CI (Eq. (7)) for each time phase.

Model	N° Days	k	a		b		r		RMSE	MAE
Model	N° Days	Fixed = ${\bar{k}}_{H}$	Mean±Std.Err		Mean±Std.Err		Mean±Std.Err		RMSE	MAE
$W R_{t}$ -P1	20	0.011	0.421 ± 0.011	^a	0.050 ± 0.003	^a	–		0.019	0.016
$W R_{t}$ -P2	27	0.011	0.414 ± 0.009	^a	0.047 ± 0.002	^a	–		0.018	0.014
$W R_{t}$ -P3	34	0.011	0.414 ± 0.007	^a	0.046 ± 0.002	^a	–		0.016	0.011
$W R_{t}$ -P4	41	0.011	0.415 ± 0.006	^a	0.047 ± 0.001	^a	–		0.014	0.010
CI–P1	20	–	602.2 ± 63.6	^a	0.044 ± 0.004	^a	0.309 ± 0.019	^a	256.7	192.6
CI–P2	27	–	498.7 ± 70.8	^a	0.049 ± 0.003	^a	0.338 ± 0.020	^a	564.6	410.3
CI–P3	34	–	200.3 ± 40.9	^a	0.068 ± 0.002	^a	0.480 ± 0.028	^a	943.5	804.5
CI–P4	41	–	118.2 ± 21.2	^a	0.075 ± 0.001	^a	0.559 ± 0.023	^a	1016.3	832.2

p < .0001 CI, cumulative infections; P1–P4, time intervals; WR_t, weighted and cumulated average of the daily growth rate; RMSE, root mean squared error; MAE, mean absolute error.