Table 3.

Fitting (a) and forecasting (b) performance statistics for the exponential decay model applied to $W{R}_t$ (Eq. (5)) and the Gompertz model applied to the CI (Eq. (7)). For each time interval, we highlight the lowest MAPE (gray) for the size of the error.

a) Model metrics
Model	N° Days	WR		CI
		MAPE	rPers	MAPE	rPers
P1 - 17/03	20	0.056	0.968	0.036	1.000
P2 - 24/03	27	0.051	0.978	0.058	1.000
P3 - 31/03	34	0.044	0.986	0.141	1.000
P4 - 07/04	41	0.044	0.990	0.151	1.000
b) Post-model metrics (until 21 April 2020)
Model	N° Days until 21/04	WR		CI
		MAPE	rPers	MAPE	rPers
P1 - 17/03	35	0.075	0.998	0.371	0.984
P2 - 24/03	28	0.029	0.997	0.322	0.996
P3 - 31/03	21	0.037	0.999	0.040	0.999
P4 - 07/04	14	0.023	1.000	0.028	0.999