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. 2021 Jan 1;421:132839. doi: 10.1016/j.physd.2020.132839

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Fig. 3 — Comparison of some of the outputs of the simulation run with $ω = 1.4555 %$ (Est.) and, when available, the Italian official reported data (Rep.). Top-left: New detected cases per day. Top-right: New detected deaths per day. Bottom-Left: Function modeling the social distancing measures. Bottom-Right: Effective reproduction number and the contribution of each infectious state (i.e. $E$ , $I$ , $I_{u}$ , $H_{R}$ and $H_{D}$ ) to this number. The vertical line corresponds to the first date when R $_{e} < 1$ .