Fig. 5. Delays in reporting decrease the epidemiological impact of testing-driven isolation.

The effectiveness of population screening programs is markedly diminished by delays in reporting in both the fully mixed compartmental model (top row) and agent-based model (bottom row). (A and B) The impact of testing every day, 3 days, weekly, or biweekly on the reproductive number R, calculated as 100 × (R₀ − R)/R₀, is shown for LODs 10³ and 10⁵ and delays of 0, 1, or 2 days (small text below the axis). Values of R were estimated from 50 independent simulations of dynamics (see Materials and Methods). (C and D) Relative to no testing (gray bars), repeated population screening suppresses the total number of infections in both models when testing every day or every 3 days, but delayed results lead to only partial mitigation of total cases, even for testing every day or 3 days. Error bars indicate inner 95% quantiles of 50 independent simulations each.