. 2020 Nov 21;12(1):13–20. doi: 10.1111/1759-7714.13616

Table 1.

Probabilities (and beta distribution parameters) of death and recurrence rate one year after diagnosis by stage at diagnosis

	Post‐surgery mortality rate (only for surgical patients)	Natural mortality rate	Tumor‐related mortality rate	Recurrence rate	Source
I	1.5% beta (1.5, 98.5)	3.1% beta (3.1, 96.9)	0.7% beta (0.7, 99.3)	5.0% beta (5.0, 95.0)	33, 34, 35, 36
II	1.4% beta (1.4, 98.6)	3.1% beta (3.1, 96.9)	6.1% beta (6.1, 93.9)	10.0% beta (10.0, 90.0)	33, 34, 35, 36
III	7.1% beta (7.1, 92.8)	3.1% beta (3.1, 96.9)	23.0% beta (23.0, 77.0)	18.0% beta (18.0, 82.0)	33, 34, 37
IV	1.9% beta (1.9, 98.1)	3.1% beta (3.1, 96.9)	53.2% beta (53.2, 46.8)	‐	3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 33, 38
Pancoast	3.2% beta (3.2, 96.8)	3.1% beta (3.1, 96.9)	33.2% beta (33.2, 66.8)	22.0% beta (22.0, 78.0)	33, 39, 40, 41, 42

Post‐surgery mortality rate (only for surgical patients)

Natural mortality rate

Tumor‐related mortality rate

Recurrence rate

Source

1.5%

beta (1.5, 98.5)

3.1%

beta (3.1, 96.9)

0.7%

beta (0.7, 99.3)

5.0%

beta (5.0, 95.0)

33, 34, 35, 36

1.4%

beta (1.4, 98.6)

3.1%

beta (3.1, 96.9)

6.1%

beta (6.1, 93.9)

10.0% beta

(10.0, 90.0)

33, 34, 35, 36

III

7.1%

beta (7.1, 92.8)

3.1%

beta (3.1, 96.9)

23.0%

beta (23.0, 77.0)

18.0%

beta (18.0, 82.0)

33, 34, 37

1.9%

beta (1.9, 98.1)

3.1%

beta (3.1, 96.9)

53.2%

beta (53.2, 46.8)

‐

3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 33, 38

Pancoast

3.2%

beta (3.2, 96.8)

3.1%

beta (3.1, 96.9)

33.2%

beta (33.2, 66.8)

22.0%

beta (22.0, 78.0)

33, 39, 40, 41, 42