Table 2.
Characteristics of colorectal cancer prediction models developed in the derivation cohort, overall and by sex
| Predictor variables | Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals), p value | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both sexes | Men | Women | ||||||||||
| Full model* | Reduced model† (LiFeCRC score) | Full model* | Reduced model† | Full model* | Reduced model† | |||||||
| Age at recruitment, per 10 years | 2.23 (2.13 to 2.33) | < .001 | 2.18 (2.09 to 2.29) | < .001 | 2.19 (2.04 to 2.35) | < .001 | 2.12 (1.98 to 2.27) | < .001 | 2.26 (2.13 to 2.40) | < .001 | 2.21 (2.08 to 2.34) | < .001 |
| Waist circumference, per 10 cm | 1.12 (1.09 to 1.15) | < .001 | 1.12 (1.09 to 1.16) | < .001 | 1.19 (1.13 to 1.25) | < .001 | 1.19 (1.13 to 1.25) | < .001 | 1.06 (1.01 to 1.10) | 0.008 | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.09) | 0.023 |
| Height, per 10 cm | 1.13 (1.08 to 1.17) | < .001 | 1.12 (1.08 to 1.17) | < .001 | 1.04 (0.96 to 1.11) | 0.333 | 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22) | < .001 | 1.16 (1.08 to 1.24) | < .001 | ||
| Daily alcohol consumption, high | 1.14 (1.06 to 1.23) | < .001 | 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22) | < .001 | 1.18 (1.07 to 1.31) | 0.002 | 1.18 (1.06 to 1.30) | 0.002 | 1.06 (0.96 to 1.18) | 0.245 | ||
| Ever smoker, yes | 1.24 (1.16 to 1.33) | < .001 | 1.24 (1.15 to 1.32) | < .001 | 1.31 (1.17 to 1.47) | < .001 | 1.31 (1.17 to 1.46) | < .001 | 1.15 (1.05 to 1.26) | 0.003 | 1.16 (1.06 to 1.27) | 0.001 |
| Physically active, yes | 0.89 (0.82 to 0.97) | 0.010 | 0.91 (0.83 to 0.99) | 0.026 | 0.93 (0.83 to 1.04) | 0.185 | 0.87 (0.76 to 0.99) | 0.029 | ||||
| Vegetables, per 100 g/day | 0.92 (0.90 to 0.95) | < .001 | 0.93 (0.90 to 0.95) | < .001 | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.93) | < .001 | 0.89 (0.85 to 0.92) | < .001 | 0.95 (0.92 to 0.99) | 0.009 | 0.93 (0.90 to 0.97) | < .001 |
| Fruits, per 100 g/day | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.01) | 0.180 | 0.99 (0.96 to 1.02) | 0.424 | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.01) | 0.196 | ||||||
| Dark bread, per 50 g/day | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.01) | 0.147 | 0.96 (0.93 to 0.99) | 0.015 | 0.97 (0.94 to 1.00) | 0.070 | 1.02 (0.98 to 1.06) | 0.329 | ||||
| Dairy products, per 100 g/day | 0.98 (0.97 to 0.99) | 0.006 | 0.98 (0.97 to 1.00) | 0.017 | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.00) | 0.016 | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.00) | 0.048 | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.01) | 0.198 | ||
| Red meat, per 50 g/day | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.08) | 0.158 | 1.06 (1.00 to 1.13) | 0.046 | 1.08 (1.02 to 1.14) | 0.010 | 0.98 (0.91 to 1.06) | 0.577 | ||||
| Poultry, per 50 g/day | 1.03 (0.95 to 1.12) | 0.461 | 1.07 (0.96 to 1.20) | 0.210 | 0.99 (0.87 to 1.12) | 0.845 | ||||||
| Processed meat, per 50 g/day | 1.08 (1.02 to 1.14) | 0.006 | 1.08 (1.03 to 1.14) | 0.004 | 1.04 (0.97 to 1.11) | 0.296 | 1.13 (1.03 to 1.24) | 0.010 | 1.12 (1.02 to 1.23) | 0.020 | ||
| Fish, per 50 g/day | 0.99 (0.93 to 1.05) | 0.665 | 1.00 (0.93 to 1.09) | 0.914 | 0.92 (0.83 to 1.02) | 0.109 | ||||||
| Sugar and confectionary, per 50 g/day | 1.03 (1.00 to 1.05) | 0.028 | 1.03 (1.00 to 1.05) | 0.022 | 1.02 (0.99 to 1.05) | 0.118 | 1.04 (0.99 to 1.09) | 0.088 | ||||
| Soft drinks, per 100 g/day | 1.02 (1.00 to 1.03) | 0.097 | 1.01 (0.99 to 1.04) | 0.392 | 1.02 (1.00 to 1.05) | 0.095 | ||||||
| Survival functionm (10 years)‡ | 0.9944 | 0.9943 | 0.9920 | 0.9919 | 0.9953 | 0.9952 | ||||||
| Risk Scorem§ | 6.8953 | 6.8089 | 6.2600 | 5.5356 | 6.4758 | 6.7039 | ||||||
| Absolute Riskm (10 years)# | 0.78% | 0.78% | 1.07% | 1.07% | 0.64% | 0.64% | ||||||
*Full models were derived by using all available predictor variables
†Reduced models were derived by using bootstrapped elastic net variable selection with all predictor variables of the full model
‡Survival functionm (10 years): 10-year survival function estimate of average predictor values of the derivation cohort. Estimates for timespans between 0 and 20 years are shown in Supplementary Fig. 2, Additional File 2
§Risk Scorem: Mean risk score calculated based on the sum of beta coefficient products of average predictor values of the derivation cohort
#Absolute Riskm: 10-year mean absolute risk of the derivation cohort