Table 2.
Multivariable analysis for prediction of death using multilevel analysis (derivation sample)
| Variables | Nursing home residents (N = 2140) |
General population (N = 9121) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR (95% CI) | p | β coefficient | Weight | OR (95% CI) | p | β coefficient | Weight | |
| Gender | ||||||||
| Female | Ref | – | – | 0 | Ref | – | – | 0 |
| Male | 1.62 (1.27–2.07) | 0.0001 | 0.4838 | 3 | 1.65 (1.30–2.11) | < 0.0001 | 0.5019 | 1.5 |
| Age (years) categorized | ||||||||
| ≤ 59 | Ref | – | – | 0 | Ref | – | – | 0 |
| 60–69 | Ref | – | – | 0 | 4.99 (3.04–8.20) | < 0.0001 | 1.6081 | 4.5 |
| 70–79 | Ref | – | – | 0 | 8.90 (5.60–14.45) | < 0.0001 | 2.1970 | 6 |
| 80–89 | 1.83 (1.33–2.52) | 0.0002 | 0.6049 | 4 | 27.17 (16.93–43.60) | < 0.0001 | 3.3021 | 9 |
| ≥ 90 | 2.59 (1.86–3.60) | < 0.0001 | 0.9511 | 7 | 61.16 (35.27–106.05) | < 0.0001 | 4.1135 | 11.5 |
| Hospital admission | 3.84 (3.04–4.86) | < 0.0001 | 1.3465 | 9 | 5.96 (4.17–8.52) | < 0.0001 | 1.7848 | 5 |
| Previous hospital admissions 1 month | 3.13 (2.14–4.57) | < 0.0001 | 1.1404 | 3 | ||||
| Comorbidities | ||||||||
| Cardiovascular | 1.49 (1.18–1.88) | 0.0007 | 0.3996 | 3 | 1.54 (1.20–1.98) | 0.0008 | 0.4308 | 1 |
| Dementia | 1.80 (1.44–2.25) | < 0.0001 | 0.5861 | 4 | 2.74 (1.84–4.10) | < 0.0001 | 1.0093 | 3 |
| Respiratory (COPD) | 1.49 (1.17–1.91) | 0.0013 | 0.4008 | 1 | ||||
| Liver disease | ||||||||
| No | Ref | – | – | 0 | ||||
| Mild | 1.43 (1.01–2.03) | 0.0448 | 0.3578 | 1 | ||||
| Moderate/Severe | 2.47 (1.16–5.26) | 0.0192 | 0.9038 | 2.5 | ||||
| Diabetes | ||||||||
| No + Yes, without organ damage | Ref | – | – | 0 | ||||
| Yes, with organ damage | 1.81 (1.23–2.69) | 0.0029 | 0.5956 | 1.5 | ||||
| Kidney | 1.33 (1.03–1.72) | 0.0283 | 0.2867 | 2 | ||||
| Cancer | 1.75 (1.34–2.27) | < 0.0001 | 0.5569 | 1.5 | ||||
| Basal treatment | ||||||||
| Lipid lowering drugs/statins | 0.63 (0.47–0.84) | 0.0019 | -0.4627 | -3 | ||||
| Direct oral anticoagulants | 0.34 (0.23–0.51) | < 0.0001 | -1.0702 | -7 | 0.34 (0.22–0.52) | < 0.0001 | -1.0692 | -3 |
| AUC (95% CI)* | 0.754 (0.730–0.778) | 0.941 (0.934–0.948) | ||||||
| Risk score, range | -10 to 28 | -3 to 31.5 | ||||||
| AUC (95% CI) | ||||||||
| Derivation sample | 0.754 (0.730–0.778) | 0.941 (0.934–0.948) | ||||||
| K-fold cross validation | 0.753 (0.729–0.777) | 0.933 (0.923–0.943) | ||||||
| Validation sample | 0.717 (0.687–0.748) | 0.938 (0.928–0.947) | ||||||
Due to the high mean age of the nursing home group and that there were less than 10% of patients under 70 years, we took as reference group for that sample those < 70 years as a whole
OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, AUC area under the ROC curve
*The AUC (95% CI) without considering the IHO (integrated healthcare organizations) was 0.742 (0.718–0.766) for the model of patients living in a nursing home, and 0.941 (0.934–0.948) for the model of patients not living in a nursing home