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. 2020 Nov 30;41(1):21–36. doi: 10.1177/0272989X20971589

Table 1.

Description of Which Distributions We Used in the Survival Models, Their Corresponding Parameters, and Average Transition Probabilities for the Different Transition Possibilities (Arrows in Figure 1) for Children, Adolescents, and Adultsa

Womenb Menb
Age Group Distribution n Parameter Transition Probabilityc n Parameter Transition Probabilityc
N - OW
 2–12 y Log-normal 17,312 (3.16, 1.22) 2.72% 18,508 (3.27, 1.19) 2.32%
 13–19 y Weibull 1495 (−5.75, 1.85) 1.85% 1222 (−6.95, 2.42) 1.80%
 20 + y Log-logistic 19,599 (0.45, 0.04) 3.25% 14,499 (0.50, 0.06) 3.86%
OW – OB1
 2–12 y Log-normal 3562 (3.32, 1.51) 2.85% 3279 (3.28, 1.31) 2.56%
 13 – 19 y Weibull 560 (−5.22, 1.77) 2.67% 483 (−4.53, 1.54) 3.28%
 20 + y Log-logistic 18,062 (0.61, 0.04) 2.38% 18,966 (0.73, 0.03) 1.63%
OB1– OB2
 2–12 y Log-normal 689 (3.35, 1.62) 2.95% 610 (3.44, 1.62) 2.73%
 13–19 y Gompertz 164 (0.12, 0.02) 3.40% 139 (0.02, 0.05) 4.98%
 20 + y Gompertz 7469 (−0.02, 0.05) 2.35% 5501 (0.01, 0.02) 1.38%
OW – N
 2–12 y Log-normal 3562 (1.64, 0.95) 13.17% 3279 (1.44, 0.91) 15.97%
 13–19 y Gompertz 560 (−0.30, 0.22) 7.83% 483 (−0.36, 0.22) 6.88%
 20 + y Gompertz 18,062 (0.04, 0.00d) 1.00% 18,966 (0.05, 0.00e) 1.10%
OB1– OW
 2–12 y Log-normal 689 (1.28, 0.92) 18.11% 610 (1.26, 0.89) 18.88%
 13–19 y Gompertz 164 (−0.43, 0.31) 8.10% 139 (−0.32, 0.16) 5.59%
 20 + y Gompertz 7469 (0.03, 0.00f) 0.96% 5501 (0.05, 0.00g) 1.95%
OB2– OB1
 2–12 y Log-normal 222 (1.27, 0.77) 20.93% 194 (1.37, 0.84) 18.22%
 13–19 y Gompertz 41 (−0.35, 0.48) 14.43% 23 (−0.16, 0.16) 8.46%
 20 + y Gompertz 2191 (0.02, 0.00h) 2.17% 846 (0.04, 0.00i) 2.79%
a

For yearly transition probabilities, see Supplementary Appendix 5.

b

For the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we sampled using Cholesky decomposition.31 Covariance matrixes (necessary to perform probabilistic sensitivity analyses) are available upon request from the author.

c

Transition probabilities given as the average yearly values for the relevant age group. For example, the average yearly transition probability between NW and OW was 2.72% for females between the ages of 2 and 12 y, based on the yearly probabilities 0.49% +1.70% +2.46% +2.88% +3.11% +3.24% +3.31% +3.33% +3.33% +3.31%)/10 ≈ 2.72%. In the model, we used yearly transition probabilities, which varied with age.

d

Value = 0.00141.

e

Value = 0.00086.

f

Value = 0.00227.

g

Value = 0.00160.

h

Value = 0.00782.

i

Value = 0.00414.