Table 3.
Life Expectancy for the Entire Cohort and When Dividing between Women and Men, Years of Life Loss (YLL) Caused by Obesity I (Scenario 1) and Obesity I and II (Scenario 2), and Expected Life Expectancy for Those Who Are NW, OW, OB1, or OB2 at 30 ya
| Women (n = 26,458) | Men (n = 28,662) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 95% CB | Δ | Mean | 95% CB | Δ | |||||
| Base case | 82.53 | (81.92–83.14) | r.c. | 79.31 | (78.66–79.77) | r.c. | ||||
| Scenario 1 | 83.10 | (82.69–83.50) | 0.57 | 79.69 | (79.26–80.11) | 0.38 | ||||
| Scenario 2 | 83.84 | (83.54–84.08) | 1.31 | 80.39 | (80.09–80.69) | 1.08 | ||||
| Total life-years loss | ||||||||||
| OB2 (scenario 1)b | 15, 081 | 10, 891 | ||||||||
| OB1 (scenario 2)c | 34, 660 | 30, 954 | ||||||||
| Life expectancy (at 30 y)d | ||||||||||
| Scenario 3 NW | 83.31 | (82.84–83.75) | r.c. | 80.31 | (79.84–80.70) | r.c. | ||||
| Scenario 4 OW | 82.26 | (81.53–82.97) | 1.05 | 79.66 | (78.91–80.15) | 0.65 | ||||
| Scenario 5 OB1 | 80.44 | (79.27–81.47) | 2.87 | 77.60 | (76.14–78.24) | 2.71 | ||||
| Scenario 6 OB2 | 79.23 | (77.68–80.64) | 4.08 | 75.48 | (74.01–76.94) | 4.83 | ||||
Δ Presented as difference from reference category.
Scenario 1: eliminating obesity II.
Scenario 2: eliminating obesity I and obesity II. r.c. = reference category.
Estimated by multiplying the expected life-years lost of obesity II for an individual by the entire cohort (i.e., 0.57 × 26,458 = 15,081).
Estimated by multiplying the expected life-years lost of obesity I and II for an individual by the entire cohort (i.e., 1.31 × 26,458 = 34,660).
Life expectancy estimated by assuming an individual is NW (scenario 3), OW (scenario 4), OB1 (scenario 5), or OB2 (scenario 6) at age 30 y in the model. In scenarios 3–6, individuals could move between health states according to transition probabilities as used in the MOON model after the age of 30; thus, individuals who were NW at age 30 could progress to OW, OB1, or OB2 throughout their lifetime. Likewise, individuals who were OB2 at age 30 could regress to OB1, OW, and NW throughout their lifetime.