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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Feb 17.
Published in final edited form as: Risk Anal. 2020 Jan 20;41(2):248–265. doi: 10.1111/risa.13447

Table 3:

Average values for global model inputs stratified by World Bank Income Level that vary by block and/or subpopulation (full distributions in appendix A3.2)

Input LI LMI UMI HI
Basic reproduction number (R0) 10.3 9.7 7 4.9
Age-group preferential mixing strength 0.36 0.36 0.44 0.39
Proportion of transmissions via the oropharyngeal route 0.3 0.36 0.61 0.83
RI coverage with 3 or more non-birth doses at T0 0.77 0.83 0.94 0.95
RI coverage with 1 or 2 non-birth doses at T0 0.20 0.15 0.07 0.23
True pSIA coverage 0.76 0.86 0.93 NA
pSIA repeatedly missed probability 0.71 0.58 0.53 NA
tOPV take rate for PV1; PV2; PV3 0.44; 0.69; 0.35 0.44; 0.68; 0.35 0.58; 0.74; 0.48  0.52; 0.71; 0.43
mOPV take rate for PV1; PV2; PV3 0.59; 0.69; 0.59 0.59; 0.69; 0.58 0.82; 0.87; 0.77  0.73; 0.80; 0.69
bOPV take rate for PV1; PV3 0.53; 0.53 0.54; 0.54 0.72; 0.72 0.65; 0.65
IPV start year 2015.7 2015.4 2013.3 2002.2
Detection threshold 1970–2018 (AFP case-based) 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.4
Detection threshold 2019–2024 (AFP case-based) 3.8 3.3 3.3 5
Detection threshold 2025–2027 (sentinel) 12.5 8.9 5.5 5
Detection threshold 2028–2058 (event-based) 30 20 10 5
ES start year (if existing) 2015.2 2015.5 2018.9 2016.3
ES quality level (if existing) high to very low high to very low high to medium high to medium
ES catchment until 2024 (% of sub-population, if existing) 4.9 5.2 2.1 1.3
ES catchment 2025–2027 (% of sub-population, if existing) 3.8 4.9 1.70.1 1.3
ES catchment 2028–2058 (% of sub-population, if existing) 1.1 1.4 1.40.1 1.3
True oSIA coverage pre-OPV2 cessation 0.77 0.76 0.72 0.9
oSIA repeatedly missed probability pre-OPV2 cessation 0.73 0.74 0.77 0.5
True oSIA coverage post-OPV2 cessation 0.76 0.86 0.93 0.89
oSIA repeatedly missed probability post-OPV2 cessation 0.71 0.58 0.53 0.58

Abbreviations:AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; ES, environmental surveillance; HI, high-income; bOPV, bivalent OPV; IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; LMI, lower middle-income; LI, low-income; mOPV, monovalent OPV; NA, not applicable; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; oSIA, outbreak response SIA; pSIA, planned, preventive SIA; PV(1,2,3) = poliovirus (type 1, 2, or 3, respectively); RI, routine immunization; SIA, supplementary immunization activity; T0, beginning of analytical time horizon (i.e., January 1, 2019); tOPV, trivalent OPV; UMI, upper middle-income