Table 3:
Average values for global model inputs stratified by World Bank Income Level that vary by block and/or subpopulation (full distributions in appendix A3.2)
| Input | LI | LMI | UMI | HI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic reproduction number (R0) | 10.3 | 9.7 | 7 | 4.9 |
| Age-group preferential mixing strength | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| Proportion of transmissions via the oropharyngeal route | 0.3 | 0.36 | 0.61 | 0.83 |
| RI coverage with 3 or more non-birth doses at T0 | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| RI coverage with 1 or 2 non-birth doses at T0 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| True pSIA coverage | 0.76 | 0.86 | 0.93 | NA |
| pSIA repeatedly missed probability | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.53 | NA |
| tOPV take rate for PV1; PV2; PV3 | 0.44; 0.69; 0.35 | 0.44; 0.68; 0.35 | 0.58; 0.74; 0.48 | 0.52; 0.71; 0.43 |
| mOPV take rate for PV1; PV2; PV3 | 0.59; 0.69; 0.59 | 0.59; 0.69; 0.58 | 0.82; 0.87; 0.77 | 0.73; 0.80; 0.69 |
| bOPV take rate for PV1; PV3 | 0.53; 0.53 | 0.54; 0.54 | 0.72; 0.72 | 0.65; 0.65 |
| IPV start year | 2015.7 | 2015.4 | 2013.3 | 2002.2 |
| Detection threshold 1970–2018 (AFP case-based) | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Detection threshold 2019–2024 (AFP case-based) | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 5 |
| Detection threshold 2025–2027 (sentinel) | 12.5 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 5 |
| Detection threshold 2028–2058 (event-based) | 30 | 20 | 10 | 5 |
| ES start year (if existing) | 2015.2 | 2015.5 | 2018.9 | 2016.3 |
| ES quality level (if existing) | high to very low | high to very low | high to medium | high to medium |
| ES catchment until 2024 (% of sub-population, if existing) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| ES catchment 2025–2027 (% of sub-population, if existing) | 3.8 | 4.9 | 1.70.1 | 1.3 |
| ES catchment 2028–2058 (% of sub-population, if existing) | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.40.1 | 1.3 |
| True oSIA coverage pre-OPV2 cessation | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.9 |
| oSIA repeatedly missed probability pre-OPV2 cessation | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.77 | 0.5 |
| True oSIA coverage post-OPV2 cessation | 0.76 | 0.86 | 0.93 | 0.89 |
| oSIA repeatedly missed probability post-OPV2 cessation | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
Abbreviations:AFP, acute flaccid paralysis; ES, environmental surveillance; HI, high-income; bOPV, bivalent OPV; IPV, inactivated poliovirus vaccine; LMI, lower middle-income; LI, low-income; mOPV, monovalent OPV; NA, not applicable; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; oSIA, outbreak response SIA; pSIA, planned, preventive SIA; PV(1,2,3) = poliovirus (type 1, 2, or 3, respectively); RI, routine immunization; SIA, supplementary immunization activity; T0, beginning of analytical time horizon (i.e., January 1, 2019); tOPV, trivalent OPV; UMI, upper middle-income