Table 5.
Sensitivity analysis.
| Assumption varied | Scenario | Comparison | Benefit–cost ratio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To 2018 | To 2025 | To 2035 | |||
| Programme cost projection | Worst-case scenario: programme costs remain constant over the time period at their current proportion of direct intervention costs | High scenario compared to the counterfactual | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Medium scenario compared to the counterfactual | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | ||
| Best-case scenario: programme costs decline linearly over the time period so that the percentage in 2035 is a quarter of that of 2013 | High scenario compared to the counterfactual | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.6 | |
| Medium scenario compared to the counterfactual | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.7 | ||
| Coverage of other social services | Coverage remains at 2013 values for all five social services | High scenario compared to the counterfactual | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Medium scenario compared to the counterfactual | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | ||