Table A2.

Univariate cross-validated AUC for each prediction horizon. The variables are ranked according to year 5 horizon.

CV-AUC and Ranking	Horizon 1		Horizon 2		Horizon 3		Horizon 4		Horizon 5
	AUC	Rank	AUC	Rank	AUC	Rank	AUC	Rank	AUC	Rank
TAC	0.831	1	0.778	1	0.787	1	0.788	1	0.774	1
Age	0.789	5	0.764	3	0.763	3	0.753	4	0.759	2
MVPA	0.773	7	0.748	4	0.746	5	0.755	3	0.751	3
ASTP	0.825	2	0.768	2	0.785	2	0.763	2	0.735	4
Sedentary time	0.804	3	0.739	5	0.752	4	0.751	5	0.731	5
TLAC	0.786	6	0.734	6	0.743	7	0.741	6	0.726	6
LIPA	0.796	4	0.734	7	0.745	6	0.739	7	0.718	7
Mobility problem	0.713	8	0.718	8	0.691	8	0.677	8	0.676	8
SD on PC 6					0.663	9	0.665	10	0.663	9
SATP	0.700	9	0.663	9	0.652	10	0.669	9	0.662	10
SD on PC 5									0.623	11
Education	0.673	10	0.566	16	0.602	13	0.609	12	0.610	12
Drinking status	0.607	12	0.604	11	0.618	12	0.619	11	0.598	13
Total cholesterol	0.474	23	0.619	10	0.622	11	0.602	13	0.593	14
Smoking status	0.528	20	0.572	14	0.568	17	0.594	14	0.590	15
CHF	0.584	14	0.588	12	0.597	14	0.583	15	0.569	16
Cancer	0.540	16	0.577	13	0.572	15	0.570	17	0.561	17
BMI	0.501	22	0.559	18	0.572	16	0.563	19	0.559	18
Diabetes	0.563	15	0.532	22	0.558	19	0.554	21	0.557	19
Gender	0.535	17	0.523	23	0.544	20	0.573	16	0.556	20
CHD	0.528	19	0.561	17	0.561	18	0.554	20	0.550	21
Systolic blood pressure	0.584	13	0.534	20	0.523	23	0.548	22	0.549	22
Stroke	0.531	18	0.533	21	0.533	22	0.537	24	0.545	23
HDL cholesterol	0.620	11	0.568	15	0.539	21	0.543	23	0.535	24
Race	0.512	21	0.555	19	0.517	24	0.528	25	0.523	25
Wear time	0.416	24	0.519	24	0.517	25	0.497	27	0.472	26
Mean on PC 2					0.454	26	0.511	26	0.434	27
Mean on PC 4							0.567	18