Table 2. Results for the model selection test.
| Challenge modality | BIC null (Joint dynamics) | BIC alternative (Separate dynamics) | Strength of Evidence | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dose | M and W yield equal death rates | M has a faster death rate than W | Delta BIC | Best model | ||
| All doses | Intranasal | 51.77302 | 55.53519 | 3.76217 | Equal death rates | Strong evidence |
| All doses | Subcutaneous | 115.9206 | 121.1775 | 5.2569 | Equal death rates | Strong evidence |
| 100,0000 CFUs | Intranasal | 29.53845 | 31.69928 | 2.16083 | Equal death rates | Weak evidence |
| 100,0000 CFUs | Subcutaneous | 20.1946 | 22.86277 | 2.66817 | Equal death rates | Weak evidence |
| 10,000 CFUs | Intranasal | 16.7423 | 20.32083 | 3.57853 | Equal death rates | Strong evidence |
| 10,000 CFUs | Subcutaneous | 30.27522 | 34.16703 | 3.89181 | Equal death rates | Strong evidence |
| 1,000 CFUs | Intranasal | 8.269192 | 8.876708 | 0.607516 | Equal death rates | Weak evidence |
| 1,000 CFUs | Subcutaneous | 67.1648 | 70.25619 | 3.09139 | Equal death rates | Strong evidence |
| 10 CFUs | Intranasal | 1.386294 | 2.772589 | 1.386295 | Equal death rates | Weak evidence |
| 10 CFUs | Subcutaneous | 1.386294 | 2.772589 | 1.386295 | Equal death rates | Weak evidence |
BIC, Bayesian Information Criterion; CFU, colony-forming unit.