Fig. 2. Variance explained and risk factor effects in the final 32-factor models.

The training set included 103,008 participants (14,898 BCC, 7479 SCC, and 3998 melanoma cases). a Risk factors are organized and presented by risk scores. The 5 ancestry PCs are not shown. The variance explained is the deviance of the model, a standard measure of goodness of fit of the model that approximates the variance explained. Deviances were recalculated in the full models, after ranking the risk factors in each skin cancer, based on the deviance explained by each individual risk factor, from the larger to the smaller deviances. ** Indicates risk factors that were not included in the cancer survey, and were identified from the wider 23andMe database. b A sample of risk factor effects (estimated effects and 95% CI). Continuous risk factors, age, and BMI, were modeled as polynomial variables.