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National ILI accuracy (horizon = 1 week) scores based on percent CDC ILI visits.
| Method | RMSE | MAPE | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|
| SARIMA-HIST | 0.261 | 8.266 | 0.175 |
| SARIMA-MRP | 0. 234 | 8. 058 | 0. 157 |
| LASSO-HIST | 0.279 | 11.82 | 0.207 |
| LASSO-A1 | 0.270 | 9.342 | 0.182 |
The rows indicate a model loss—root mean squared error (RMSE), mean average percent error (MAPE), and mean average error (MAE). See Supplementary Information 6.8 for loss calculations. Bold text indicates minimum values.
