Table 2.
Deaths and mortality owing to the main NCDs for people aged 30–69 years from 2015 to 2030 under different scenarios.
| Gender | Diseases | 2015 | 2030 | Reduction in deaths (in thousands)a | Percent change of Mortality rate (%)a | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Un | NT | R1 | R2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Deaths (in thousands) | Mortality rate (per 100,000) | Deaths (in thousands) | Mortality rate (per 100,000) | Deaths (in thousands) | Mortality rate (per 100,000) | Deaths (in thousands) | Mortality rate (per 100,000) | Deaths (in thousands) | Mortality rate (per 100,000) | Un | NT | R1 | R2 | Un | NT | R1 | R2 | ||
| Both | Total | 266.4 | 608.7 | 316.0 | 639.4 | 266.9 | 540.0 | 249.6 | 505.1 | 243.2 | 492.2 | 49.5 | 0.4 | − 16.8 | − 23.2 | 5.1 | − 11.3 | − 17.0 | − 19.1 |
| Cancer | 117.7 | 268.8 | 138.3 | 280.0 | 133.1 | 269.3 | 120.3 | 243.4 | 117.3 | 237.3 | 20.7 | 15.4 | 2.6 | − 0.4 | 4.1 | 0.2 | − 9.5 | − 11.7 | |
| CVD | 75.8 | 173.2 | 93.4 | 189.1 | 77.8 | 157.4 | 77.9 | 157.6 | 75.5 | 152.9 | 17.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | − 0.3 | 9.1 | − 9.1 | − 9.0 | − 11.7 | |
| CRD | 40.2 | 91.8 | 50.2 | 101.7 | 23.7 | 47.9 | 19.2 | 38.8 | 18.1 | 36.7 | 10.1 | − 16.5 | − 21.0 | − 22.1 | 10.8 | − 47.8 | − 57.8 | − 60.0 | |
| DM | 4.7 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 1.2 | − 0.4 | − 0.4 | − 0.5 | 11.6 | − 19.4 | − 19.3 | − 20.1 | |
| Men | Total | 178.3 | 810.0 | 210.3 | 844.5 | 186.5 | 748.8 | 170.2 | 683.3 | 164.8 | 661.9 | 32.0 | 8.2 | − 8.1 | − 13.5 | 4.3 | − 7.6 | − 15.6 | − 18.3 |
| Cancer | 80.9 | 367.6 | 95.6 | 384.0 | 95.6 | 383.7 | 83.2 | 334.2 | 80.8 | 324.4 | 14.7 | 14.6 | 2.3 | − 0.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | − 9.1 | − 11.8 | |
| CVD | 48.8 | 221.5 | 59.4 | 238.4 | 51.7 | 207.7 | 51.8 | 207.9 | 49.7 | 199.4 | 10.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 7.6 | − 6.2 | − 6.1 | − 10.0 | |
| CRD | 26.4 | 119.9 | 32.5 | 130.6 | 17.0 | 68.3 | 13.0 | 52.0 | 12.2 | 49.1 | 6.1 | − 9.4 | − 13.4 | − 14.2 | 8.9 | − 43.1 | − 56.6 | − 59.0 | |
| DM | 2.3 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | − 0.1 | 8.7 | − 13.1 | − 13.0 | − 14.5 | |
| Women | Total | 88.1 | 405.0 | 105.7 | 431.1 | 80.4 | 328.0 | 79.4 | 324.1 | 78.4 | 319.8 | 17.5 | − 7.7 | − 8.7 | − 9.7 | 6.4 | − 19.0 | − 20.0 | − 21.0 |
| Cancer | 36.8 | 168.9 | 42.7 | 174.2 | 37.5 | 153.0 | 37.0 | 151.1 | 36.5 | 148.9 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | − 0.3 | 3.1 | − 9.4 | − 10.6 | − 11.9 | |
| CVD | 27.1 | 124.4 | 34.1 | 138.9 | 26.1 | 106.4 | 26.1 | 106.4 | 25.9 | 105.7 | 7.0 | − 1.0 | − 1.0 | − 1.2 | 11.6 | − 14.5 | − 14.5 | − 15.1 | |
| CRD | 13.8 | 63.3 | 17.7 | 72.3 | 6.7 | 27.3 | 6.2 | 25.3 | 5.9 | 24.0 | 3.9 | − 7.1 | − 7.6 | − 7.9 | 14.1 | − 56.9 | − 60.1 | − 62.1 | |
| DM | 2.4 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 12.6 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 0.7 | − 0.4 | − 0.4 | − 0.4 | 14.5 | − 25.5 | − 25.5 | − 25.6 | |
CVD cardiovascular diseases, CRD chronic respiratory diseases, DM diabetes mellitus, Un unchanged scenario, NT natural trend scenario, R1 reduced by 20% scenario, R2 reduced by 30% scenario, SIR smoking impact ratio.
aCompared with 2015.