Table 3.
Estimation Results of the Generalized Additive Mixed Models for Human Mobility (From February 1st, 2020 to May 31st, 2020).
| Δ Trip per person | Δ Proportion of staying home | Δ Person-miles traveled | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parametric coefficients: | |||||||||||||
| Estimate | Std. Error | P-value | Estimate | Std. Error | P-value | Estimate | Std. Error | P-value | |||||
| (Intercept) | −0.152 | 0.095 | 0.110 | 0.065 | 0.011 | 0.000 | *** | −3.404 | 2.309 | 0.140 | |||
| COVID-19 | New cases | −0.550 | 0.019 | 0.000 | *** | 0.115 | 0.003 | 0.000 | *** | −2.680 | 0.554 | 0.000 | *** |
| Adj. new cases | −0.252 | 0.006 | 0.000 | *** | 0.051 | 0.001 | 0.000 | *** | −4.138 | 0.164 | 0.000 | *** | |
| National new cases | −0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | −0.051 | 0.008 | 0.000 | *** | |
| Policy | Stay-at-home order: 1 | −0.064 | 0.003 | 0.000 | *** | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | −0.491 | 0.077 | 0.000 | *** |
| Stay-at-home order: 2 | −0.083 | 0.003 | 0.000 | *** | 0.011 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | −1.327 | 0.076 | 0.000 | *** | |
| Stay-at-home order: 3 | −0.095 | 0.003 | 0.000 | *** | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | −1.845 | 0.083 | 0.000 | *** | |
| Reopening order | 0.049 | 0.005 | 0.000 | *** | −0.009 | 0.001 | 0.000 | *** | 0.364 | 0.152 | 0.017 | * | |
| Weather | Precipitation | −0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | −0.033 | 0.002 | 0.000 | *** |
| Max. Temperature | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | −0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | 0.033 | 0.003 | 0.000 | *** | |
| Socio-demographics | Population density | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.127 | −0.001 | 0.000 | 0.042 | * | 0.112 | 0.063 | 0.076 | . | |
| Male | 0.369 | 0.106 | 0.001 | *** | −0.084 | 0.013 | 0.000 | *** | 9.645 | 6.591 | 0.144 | ||
| Age_0_24 | −0.154 | 0.098 | 0.115 | −0.001 | 0.012 | 0.899 | 2.018 | 2.380 | 0.397 | ||||
| Age_25_40 | −0.567 | 0.112 | 0.000 | *** | 0.112 | 0.013 | 0.000 | *** | −5.287 | 2.737 | 0.053 | . | |
| Age_40_65 | −0.399 | 0.133 | 0.003 | ** | 0.025 | 0.016 | 0.118 | 2.302 | 3.234 | 0.477 | |||
| Race-White | 0.012 | 0.036 | 0.747 | −0.005 | 0.004 | 0.218 | 1.970 | 1.267 | 0.120 | ||||
| Race-Hispanics | −0.052 | 0.040 | 0.195 | 0.008 | 0.005 | 0.090 | . | −0.545 | 0.979 | 0.578 | |||
| Race-African American | 0.094 | 0.038 | 0.012 | * | −0.015 | 0.005 | 0.001 | *** | 3.408 | 0.907 | 0.000 | *** | |
| Race-Asian | −0.137 | 0.130 | 0.293 | 0.066 | 0.015 | 0.000 | *** | −0.365 | 3.174 | 0.909 | |||
| Median income | −0.002 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | *** | −0.067 | 0.006 | 0.000 | *** | |
| Army personnel | −0.193 | 0.131 | 0.141 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.310 | −6.743 | 3.191 | 0.035 | * | |||
| College students | −0.409 | 0.085 | 0.000 | *** | 0.091 | 0.010 | 0.000 | *** | −6.771 | 2.073 | 0.001 | ** | |
| Incarcerated ratio | 0.227 | 0.236 | 0.335 | −0.028 | 0.028 | 0.320 | 6.456 | 5.769 | 0.266 | ||||
| Political parties | Democrats | −0.155 | 0.032 | 0.000 | *** | 0.019 | 0.004 | 0.000 | *** | −1.204 | 0.575 | 0.036 | * |
| Non-voters | 0.065 | 0.052 | 0.211 | −0.013 | 0.008 | 0.121 | 3.109 | 2.800 | 0.270 | ||||
| Industry | Agriculture | 0.033 | 0.045 | 0.460 | −0.003 | 0.005 | 0.595 | 0.170 | 1.106 | 0.878 | |||
| Retail | 0.022 | 0.015 | 0.149 | −0.008 | 0.005 | 0.131 | −0.791 | 0.526 | 0.133 | ||||
| Educational | −0.215 | 0.077 | 0.006 | ** | 0.020 | 0.009 | 0.027 | * | −1.746 | 0.891 | 0.050 | * | |
| Finance | −0.092 | 0.038 | 0.017 | * | 0.023 | 0.009 | 0.015 | * | −6.973 | 1.922 | 0.000 | *** | |
| Transportation | −0.045 | 0.056 | 0.420 | 0.013 | 0.007 | 0.048 | * | −0.253 | 1.378 | 0.854 | |||
| Entertainment | −0.333 | 0.158 | 0.034 | * | 0.075 | 0.021 | 0.000 | *** | 2.954 | 1.345 | 0.028 | * | |
| Accommodation | −0.066 | 0.042 | 0.116 | −0.005 | 0.005 | 0.316 | −1.090 | 1.020 | 0.285 | ||||
| Health care | 0.105 | 0.045 | 0.020 | * | −0.003 | 0.001 | 0.008 | ** | 0.445 | 0.227 | 0.049 | * | |
| Manufacturing | −0.016 | 0.040 | 0.682 | −0.003 | 0.005 | 0.543 | −0.979 | 0.971 | 0.313 | ||||
| Temporal | Weekend | 0.156 | 0.028 | 0.000 | *** | −0.019 | 0.005 | 0.000 | *** | 1.213 | 0.622 | 0.051 | . |
| Smooth terms: | |||||||||||||
| e.d.f | F | P-value | e.d.f | F | P-value | e.d.f | F | P-value | |||||
| s (Time Index) | 8.998 | 9.000 | 0.000 | *** | 8.997 | 9.000 | 0.000 | *** | 8.993 | 9.000 | 0.000 | *** | |
| s (Week) | 4.974 | 5.000 | 0.000 | *** | 4.985 | 5.000 | 0.000 | *** | 4.957 | 4.999 | 0.000 | *** | |
| s (County) | 2828.020 | 3019.000 | 0.000 | *** | 2752.011 | 3019.000 | 0.000 | *** | 2773.656 | 3019.000 | 0.000 | *** | |
| s (State) | 23.815 | 48.000 | 0.000 | *** | 27.026 | 48.000 | 0.000 | *** | 22.600 | 48.000 | 0.000 | *** | |
| s (Latitude, Longitude) | 23.086 | 23.260 | 0.000 | *** | 24.363 | 24.580 | 0.000 | *** | 20.834 | 21.107 | 0.000 | *** | |
| Model fit: | |||||||||||||
| R-sq.(adj) | 0.652 | 0.708 | 0.545 | ||||||||||
| fREML | −15732 | −678050 | 1,137,400 | ||||||||||
aSignificance codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1.
bs () refers to a spline function.