Table 3:
Psychosocial model prediction of cigarette smoking status, by actual cigarette or e-cigarette use status, US Middle School and High School Students, National Youth Tobacco Survey, 2004–2018
| Predicted Cigarette Smoking Statusab | ||||||||
| Ever Smokerc | ||||||||
| Actual Participant Smoking Status | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | |
| Actual ever smoker d | 87.4 (85.7, 89.1) | 85.0 (83.5, 86.5) | 82.5 (80.7, 84.4) | 80.3 (78.3, 82.4) | 78.1 (75.4, 80.9) | 75.3 (73.4, 77.2) | 75.9 (73.3, 78.5) | 73.7 (71.6, 75.8) |
| Actual never smoker/ never e-cigarette user e | 32.4 (29.0, 35.8) | 21.7 (20.2, 23.3) | 19.2 (17.7, 20.7) | 14.9 (13.4, 16.5) | 11.4 (9.8, 13.0) | 10.4 (9.3, 11.5) | 10.2 (9.1, 11.4) | 8.7 (7.8, 9.6) |
| Actual ever e-cigarette only user f | -- | 64.2 (54.5, 74.0) | 66.7 (53.4, 79.9) | 52.1 (13.4, 16.5) | 43.7 (40.3, 47.2) | 40.8 (37.7, 43.9) | 41.4 (38.2, 44.6) | 35.9 (32.9, 38.8) |
| Current Smokerg | ||||||||
| Actual Participant Smoking Status | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
| % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | |
| Actual current smoker h | 85.2 (82.2, 88.2) | 81.0 (79.0, 83.0) | 78.7 (75.9, 81.5) | 76.8 (72.9, 80.7) | 74.0 (70.4, 77.6) | 77.6 (74.4, 80.7) | 73.0 (69.6, 76.5) | 69.0 (65.4, 72.6) |
| Actual noncurrent smoker/ noncurrent e-cigarette user i | 3.5 (2.8, 4.3) | 2.5 (2.2, 2.9) | 4.4 (3.7, 5.0) | 1.4 (1.1, 1.7) | .9 (.7, 1.2) | 1.1 (.9, 1.4) | 1.2 (1.0, 1.5) | .8 (.7, 1.0) |
| Actual current e-cigarette only user j | -- | 15.7 (7.4, 24.0) | 26.3 (16.2, 36.4) | 11.1 (9.0, 13.3) | 7.9 (5.9, 9.9) | 11.5 (8.2, 14.9) | 10.7 (8.0, 13.4) | 9.3 (7.5, 11.0) |
Data are presented as percentages (95% CIs). All analyses adjusted for NYTS-provided weights, stratification, and design variables.
Estimated likelihood of smoking cigarettes based on a psychosocial model of smoking created by using 2004–2009 NYTS data on sex, race/ethnicity, age, living with a smoker, intention to smoke cigarettes in the next year, likelihood of smoking a cigarette offered by a friend, other tobacco product use (besides cigarettes and e- cigarettes), and time (centered on 2009).
Model-estimated likelihood of ever taking a puff of a cigarette.
Reported taking ≥1 puff of a cigarette in lifetime, including dual users of cigarettes and e-cigarettes.
Reported never taking a puff of a cigarette or e-cigarette.
Endorsed having ever taken ≥1 puff of an e-cigarette but not smoking ≥1 puff of a cigarette.
Model-estimated likelihood of having smoked cigarettes in the past 30 days.
Reported smoking cigarettes in the past 30 days, includes dual users of cigarettes and e-cigarettes.
Did not report smoking cigarettes or using an e-cigarette in the past 30 days.
Reported using an e-cigarette in the past 30 days but not smoking cigarettes in the past 30 days.
-- indicates an unstable estimate either due to an RSE >.3 or unweighted denominator < 50