Table 4.

AUC analysis for prediction of long-term CAC=0 among individuals with metabolic syndrome or type 2 diabetes.

	C-Statistic (95% CI)	Model P-value	Change in C-Statistic*	AUC Contrast P-value*
Demographics
Age, Sex, Race	0.625 (0.577, 0.673)	<0.001	-	-
Traditional Risk Factors/Risk Scoring
Individual Risk Factors †	0.671 (0.625, 0.718)	<0.0001	+0.046	<0.01
Pooled Cohort Equations ASCVD Risk	0.599 (0.551, 0.648)	<0.01	−0.026	0.17
Novel Risk Factors/Risk Scoring
Individual Risk Factors + Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score	0.673 (0.627, 0.719)	<0.001	+0.048	<0.01
Individual Risk Factors + hs-cTnT, NT-proBNP, Lp(a), hs-CRP, eGFR, Absence of Urine Protein	0.686 (0.625, 0.747)	0.05	+0.061	0.12
Imaging
Individual Risk Factors + Absence of Extra-Coronary Atherosclerosis ‡	0.698 (0.650, 0.740)	<0.0001	+0.073	<0.01
Demographics, Traditional Risk Factors, Novel Risk Factors, and Imaging §	0.709 (0.650, 0.768)	<0.01	+0.084	0.03

All models, except pooled cohort equations model, include age, sex, and race as covariates.

^*=ROC curves were compared to the reference model including age, sex, and race.

^†= systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, waist circumference, triglycerides, antihypertensive medication, glucose-lowering medication,

lipid-lowering medication.

^‡= carotid plaque and thoracic calcification.

^§= all individual risk factors listed above, except the pooled cohort equations ASCVD risk and the metabolic syndrome severity score.

ASCVD=atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; AUC=area-under-the-curve; eGFR=estimated glomerular filtration rate; hs-CRP=high sensitivity C-reactive protein; hs-cTnT=high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; Lp(a)=lipoprotein a;

NT-proBNP=n-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide.