. 2020 Nov 5;46(11-12):409–421. doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v46i1112a08

Table 1. Variation of the attack rate (at day 730) for different levels of case detection/isolation, contact tracing/quarantining and physical distancing, after day 88, May 4, 2020.

Case detection/isolation	Contact tracing and quarantine
Case detection/isolation	0.30	0.40	0.50	0.60	0.70	0.80
Contact rate reduced by 50% after day 88
0.30	53.57	51.68	49.66	47.49	45.15	42.62
0.40	44.21	41.06	37.61	33.84	29.71	25.24
0.50	31.92	27.10	21.86	16.35	11.09	7.06^a
0.60	16.46	10.82	6.61^a	4.34^a	3.25^a	2.66^a
0.70	4.69^a	3.35^a	2.68^a	2.29^a	2.05^a	1.88^a
0.80	2.33^a	2.06^a	1.88^a	1.75^a	1.65^a	1.58^a
Contact rate reduced by 33% after day 88
0.30	68.68	67.41	66.04	64.56	62.95	61.20
0.40	62.54	60.37	57.95	55.26	52.24	48.84
0.50	54.22	50.68	46.65	42.02	36.70	30.61
0.60	42.70	37.17	30.77	23.49	15.67	8.86^a
0.70	26.68	18.89	11.18	6.02^a	3.82^a	2.88^a
0.80	8.34^a	4.69^a	3.23^a	2.56^a	2.19^a	1.96^a
Contact rate reduced by 16.7% after day 88
0.30	76.56	75.65	74.66	73.58	72.41	71.13
0.40	72.20	70.63	68.87	66.89	64.66	62.13
0.50	66.27	63.67	60.67	57.19	53.10	48.29
0.60	57.92	53.73	48.74	42.77	35.59	27.03
0.70	45.80	39.18	31.21	21.85	12.20	6.03^a
0.80	27.95	18.53	9.65^a	4.96^a	3.28^a	2.57^a

^a Scenarios where epidemic control maintained attack rate below 10% (green)