Table S2. Model parameters, definition, values and evidence.
| Parameter name | Definition | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| beta | Probability of transmission when contact made with infectious person | Ages 0–10 average value of 0.041 Ages 10–20 average value of 0.041 Ages 20–40 average value of 0.041 Ages 40–60 average value of 0.041 Ages 60–75 average value of 0.041 Ages 75+ average value of 0.041 |
Based on Stilianakis et al. (33) and adjusted using data from the beginning of the epidemic (Figure 2 in the article) |
| lambda | Proportion of exposed to detected infectious who are traced and quarantined (contact tracing/quarantine) | Value of 40% until day 87 From day 88 up to the end of the epidemic, the value varied according to control scenarios |
NA |
| cgg | Number of daily contacts between two individuals from the general population | 6*6 matrix Average value of 12.6 from day 0 to day 40 (see Table S2.1 below) Linear decrease of 50% from days 41 and 47 Value of 50% below normal from day 48 until day 87 From day 88 up to the end of the epidemic, the value varied according to control scenarios |
Based on Prem et al. (19) |
| cgq | Number of daily contacts between an individual from the general population and an individual from the quarantined population | 6*6 matrix identical during all the duration of the simulation (see Table S2.2 below) | We assumed a person in quarantine is in contact with a maximum of one person each day during his/her quarantine period. The value of one was then standardized according to the total population size in each stratum |
| 20sigma | Latent period (days) | 4.12 days | Based on Li et al., 2020 (34) |
| delta | Proportion of presymptomatic infectious cases that will be identified (or detected) | Value of 40% until day 87 From day 88 and to the end of the epidemic, the value varied according to control scenarios |
NA |
| alpha | Proportion of cases who develop severe symptoms | Ages 0–10 average value of 0.02 Ages 10–20 average value of 0.02 Ages 20–40 average value of 0.04 Ages 40–60 average value of 0.10 Ages 60–75 average value of 0.30 Ages 75+ average value of 0.41 |
Based on Public Health Agency of Canada (21) |
| tpres | Period of time between onset of infectiousness and onset of symptoms in those developing symptoms OR first infectious period for asymptomatic | 2 days | Based on He et al., 2020 (35) |
| tsm | Period of time between onset of symptoms and recovery for cases with mild symptoms OR second infectious period for asymptomatic | 6 days | Based on Wölfel et al., 2020 (36) and He et al., 2020 (35) |
| tsph | Period between symptom onset for cases with severe symptoms and being taken care of by the health system | 3 days | Based on Khalili et al., 2020 (37) |
| pICU | Proportion of hospitalized cases who require/access to ICU in hospital | Ages 0–10 average value of 0.20 Ages 10–20 average value of 0.35 Ages 20–40 average value of 0.36 Ages 40–60 average value of 0.46 Ages 60–75 average value of 0.46 Ages 75+ average value of 0.19 |
Based on Public Health Agency of Canada (21) |
| pvent | Proportion of hospitalized cases who require/access to ventilation (Vent) | 0 | This will be updated in future models once age-specific data become available |
| tsorting | Period of time for sorting severe cases in hospital (before general service, ICU or Vent) | 1 day | We assume it takes one day on average between when a severe case arrives in the hospital and when the case is sorted to the appropriate service |
| mg | Mortality rate for severe cases in hospital that do not require ICU or Vent (general) | Ages 0–10 average value of 0 Ages 10–20 average value of 0 Ages 20–40 average value of 0 Ages 40–60 average value of 0.02 Ages 60–75 average value of 0.14 Ages 75+ average value of 0.34 |
Based on Public Health Agency of Canada (34) |
| mICU | Mortality rate for severe cases dying in hospital (ICU) | Ages 0–10 average value of 0 Ages 10–20 average value of 0 Ages 20–40 average value of 0.06 Ages 40–60 average value of 0.15 Ages 60–75 average value of 0.32 Ages 75+ average value of 0.57 |
Based on Public Health Agency of Canada (34) |
| mVent | Mortality rate for severe case dying in hospital (Vent) | NA | Not calibrated because this parameter has no impact on the results (e.g. attack rate) presented in this article |
| thr | Period of time between first day in hospital after sorting, and recovery or death | 12 days | Based on hospitalization and length of stay of COVID-19 cases (38–40) |
| mg- | Mortality rate for severe cases dying at home because they are not able to access hospital care | NA | Not calibrated because this parameter has no impact on the results (e.g. attack rate) presented in this article |
| mICU- | Mortality rate for severe cases dying in hospital because they are not able to access ICU | NA | Not calibrated because this parameter has no impact on the results (e.g. attack rate) presented in this article |
Abbreviations: ICU, intensive care unit; NA, not applicable; Vent, ventilator