Assessing the impact of varying levels of case detection and contact tracing on COVID-19 transmission in Canada during lifting of restrictive closures using a dynamic compartmental model

. 2020 Nov 5;46(11-12):409–421. doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v46i1112a08

Case detection/isolation	Contact tracing and quarantine
Case detection/isolation	0.30	0.40	0.50	0.60	0.70	0.80
Attack rate for a beta 10% higher than expected (beta=0.045)
Contact rate still reduced by 50% after day 88
0.30	59.09352	57.4983	55.78916	53.9561	51.98852	49.87534
0.40	51.116	48.47224	45.58901	42.44803	39.03661	35.35465
0.50	40.72402	36.72655	32.39552	27.80149	23.12042	18.6755
0.60	27.68375	22.66857	17.92792	13.9703	11.07788	9.127013^a
0.70	14.67835	11.41256	9.222685^a	7.797606^a	6.846839^a	6.184861^a
0.80	7.997407^a	6.941327^a	6.220808^a	5.706796^a	5.325164^a	5.032136^a
Contact rate reduced by 33% after day 88
0.30	72.12056	71.03947	69.87305	68.6118	67.24506	65.76064
0.40	66.84949	65.00664	62.96262	60.688	58.14878	55.30608
0.50	59.74349	56.76575	53.38173	49.5269	45.13509	40.15337
0.60	49.97753	45.37923	40.1135	34.16619	27.6911	21.21683
0.70	36.56815	30.14937	23.41448	17.23498	12.63568	9.755943^a
0.80	20.20915	14.69697	10.93404	8.667255^a	7.296874^a	6.418942^a
Contact rate reduced by 16.7% after day 88
0.30	78.97424	78.18379	77.33041	76.40654	75.40348	74.31118
0.40	75.19535	73.84808	72.34734	70.66763	68.77832	66.64237
0.50	70.09167	67.88819	65.35466	62.42254	59.0075	55.00747
0.60	62.96743	59.44347	55.27892	50.33294	44.45665	37.55202
0.70	52.71792	47.23034	40.70934	33.12933	24.9225	17.4795
0.80	37.83963	30.13374	22.10612	15.33652	11.01025	8.593437^a

Attack rate for a beta 10% lower than expected (beta=0.037)
Contact rate still reduced by 50% after day 88
0.30	46.32687	44.1102	41.73141	39.17554	36.42638	33.46669
0.40	35.37861	31.69369	27.6635	23.2589	18.45491	13.23975
0.50	21.11151	15.51616	9.487262^a	4.352624^a	2.026998^a	1.268084^a
0.60	4.446911^a	1.925112^a	1.178985^a	0.892557^a	0.747114^a	0.659919^a
0.70	0.917685^a	0.750175^a	0.655133^a	0.594146^a	0.551763^a	0.520622^a
0.80	0.594963^a	0.550296^a	0.517993^a	0.493555^a	0.474428^a	0.459053^a
Contact rate reduced by 33% after day 88
0.30	64.06551	62.56878	60.95033	59.19649	57.29164	55.21801
0.40	56.83411	54.26817	51.41448	48.22939	44.66162	40.65115
0.50	47.04398	42.87674	38.12076	32.67411	26.42855	19.2982
0.60	33.54144	27.06095	19.59878	11.19984	4.000164^a	1.648817^a
0.70	14.97949	6.498159^a	2.127114^a	1.165722^a	0.858549^a	0.713186^a
0.80	1.48164^a	0.962062^a	0.758895^a	0.652422^a	0.587167^a	0.543146^a
Contact rate reduced by 16.7% after day 88
0.30	73.32151	72.24328	71.07465	69.80463	68.42056	66.90782
0.40	68.1969	66.33559	64.25373	61.91416	59.27188	56.27203
0.50	61.2006	58.12787	54.57939	50.45286	45.61944	39.91796
0.60	51.36095	46.40851	40.51931	33.46741	25.00128	14.98944
0.70	37.11735	29.3243	19.98326	9.323668^a	2.537434^a	1.234962^a
0.80	16.33694	6.198483^a	1.832707^a	1.050737^a	0.794449^a	0.670077^a

^a Scenarios where epidemic control maintained attack rate below 10% (green)