Table 2.
Change in Death Rates Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic by State (and New York City)
| Relative Change in Death Rate in 2019∗ (3/19–6/3 vs. 1/1–3/18) (95% CI) | Relative Change in Death Rate in 2020† (3/18–6/2 vs. 1/1–3/17) (95% CI) | Ratio of Relative Change in Death Rates (2020 vs. 2019)‡ (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York (excluding NYC) | |||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.87 (0.74–1.02) | 1.26 (1.08–1.46) | 1.44 (1.16–1.79) |
| Heart failure | 0.88 (0.77–0.99) | 0.85 (0.74–0.98) | 0.97 (0.81–1.17) |
| Hypertensive diseases | 0.95 (0.82–1.09) | 1.22 (1.07–1.38) | 1.28 (1.06–1.55) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 0.94 (0.84–1.04) | 1.00 (0.89–1.11) | 1.07 (0.91–1.25) |
| Other diseases of the circulatory system§ | 0.96 (0.89–1.05) | 0.87 (0.8–0.95) | 0.91 (0.81–1.02) |
| New York City|| | |||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.89 (0.59–1.33) | 2.12 (1.49–3.01) | 2.39 (1.39–4.09) |
| Hypertensive diseases | 0.87 (0.57–1.33) | 2.28 (1.62–3.23) | 2.64 (1.52–4.56) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 0.94 (0.77–1.15) | 1.20 (1.00–1.44) | 1.28 (0.97–1.68) |
| Other diseases of the circulatory system§ | 0.82 (0.65–1.03) | 1.35 (1.08–1.68) | 1.65 (1.2–2.27) |
| New Jersey | |||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.88 (0.77–1.00) | 1.28 (1.13–1.44) | 1.45 (1.22–1.73) |
| Heart failure | 0.95 (0.83–1.08) | 1.11 (0.98–1.26) | 1.17 (0.98–1.41) |
| Hypertensive diseases | 0.89 (0.71–1.12) | 1.67 (1.35–2.06) | 1.88 (1.38–2.57) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 0.86 (0.76–0.97) | 1.10 (0.98–1.23) | 1.28 (1.09–1.51) |
| Other diseases of the circulatory system§ | 0.95 (0.83–1.09) | 1.07 (0.94–1.22) | 1.12 (0.93–1.35) |
| Massachusetts | |||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.92 (0.82–1.03) | 1.02 (0.9–1.15) | 1.11 (0.94–1.31) |
| Heart failure | 0.84 (0.73–0.96) | 0.89 (0.78–1.02) | 1.06 (0.88–1.29) |
| Hypertensive diseases | 0.97 (0.82–1.14) | 1.02 (0.88–1.19) | 1.06 (0.85–1.32) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 0.88 (0.79–0.99) | 1.01 (0.9–1.14) | 1.14 (0.97–1.35) |
| Other diseases of the circulatory system§ | 0.86 (0.76–0.96) | 0.96 (0.86–1.08) | 1.12 (0.95–1.32) |
| Louisiana | |||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.96 (0.88–1.04) | 1.05 (0.97–1.13) | 1.10 (0.98–1.23) |
| Heart failure | 0.85 (0.75–0.97) | 0.98 (0.86–1.11) | 1.15 (0.96–1.38) |
| Hypertensive diseases | 1.09 (0.94–1.28) | 1.09 (0.95–1.27) | 1.00 (0.81–1.24) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 0.88 (0.75–1.02) | 0.96 (0.82–1.11) | 1.09 (0.88–1.35) |
| Other diseases of the circulatory system§ | 0.94 (0.83–1.06) | 0.89 (0.79–1.00) | 0.95 (0.8–1.12) |
| Michigan | |||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.89 (0.81–0.98) | 1.09 (0.99–1.2) | 1.23 (1.07–1.41) |
| Heart failure | 0.94 (0.83–1.08) | 1.06 (0.93–1.22) | 1.13 (0.93–1.36) |
| Hypertensive diseases | 0.99 (0.89–1.11) | 1.16 (1.05–1.28) | 1.16 (1.00–1.35) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 0.97 (0.88–1.06) | 1.03 (0.94–1.13) | 1.07 (0.93–1.22) |
| Other diseases of the circulatory system§ | 0.95 (0.87–1.04) | 0.96 (0.89–1.05) | 1.02 (0.90–1.15) |
| Illinois | |||
| Ischemic heart disease | 0.90 (0.86–0.95) | 1.00 (0.95–1.05) | 1.11 (1.04, 1.19) |
| Heart failure | 0.91 (0.83–0.98) | 0.90 (0.83–0.98) | 1.00 (0.89–1.12) |
| Hypertensive diseases | 0.89 (0.80–1.00) | 1.16 (1.05–1.28) | 1.30 (1.12–1.51) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 0.91 (0.85–0.98) | 1.00 (0.94–1.08) | 1.10 (0.99–1.21) |
| Other diseases of the circulatory system§ | 0.94 (0.87–1.02) | 1.03 (0.96–1.11) | 1.10 (0.98–1.22) |
Ratio of the average weekly mortality rate (per 100,000 population) from March 19 to June 3, 2019 versus January 1 to March 18, 2019.
Ratio of the average weekly mortality rate (per 100,000 population) from March 18 to June 2, 2020 (pandemic period) versus January 1 to March 17, 2020 (pre-pandemic period). March 18, 2020 was chosen as the start of the pandemic period, as states began experiencing a rapid increase in reported COVID-19 cases and implementing stay-at-home orders during the third week of March 2020.
Ratio of the change in the average weekly mortality rate in 2020 (March 18 to June 2 vs. January 1 to March 17) compared with the change in the average weekly mortality rate during the same periods in 2019 (March 19 to June 3 vs. January 1 to March 18). This ratio reflects the relative change in mortality rates attributable to the pandemic in 2020, compared with a historical control (2019).
Conditions considered “other diseases of the circulatory system” include pulmonary embolism, pericarditis, myocarditis, and cardiac arrest.
Relative change in heart failure deaths for New York City (NYC) are not shown, owing to a high number of missing values for 2019.