Table 2.
Performance of normalized lactate load, initial lactate and maximum lactate in predicting mortality
| Cut-off value | Area under curve (95% CI) | Sensitivity (%, 95 CI) | Specificity (%, 95 CI) | Positive likelihood ratio (95% CI) | Negative likelihood ratio (95% CI) | Positive predictive value (95% CI) | Negative predictive value (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In overall population (n = 1371) | ||||||||
| Normalized lactate load (mmol/L) | 2.6 | 0.681 (0.656–0.706) | 60 (55.8–64.1) | 66.95 (63.6–70.2) | 1.82 (1.6–2.0) | 0.6 (0.5–0.7) | 54.5 (50.4–58.5) | 71.7 (68.4–74.9) |
| Initial lactate (mmol/L) | 2.6 | 0.623 (0.596–0.648) | 58.9 (54.6–63.1) | 57.99 (54.5–61.4) | 1.4 (1.3–1.6) | 0.71 (0.6–0.8) | 48.1 (44.2–51.9) | 68.1 (64.6–71.6) |
| Maximum Lactate (mmol/L) | 4.4 | 0.606 (0.580–0.632) | 53.94 (49.7–58.2) | 65.5 (62.1–68.7) | 1.56 (1.4–1.8) | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) | 50.8 (46.6–54.9) | 68.3 (64.9–71.5) |
| In patients with a maximum lactate ≥ 4 mmol/L (n = 686) | ||||||||
| Normalized lactate load (mmol/L) | 3.6 | 0.696 (0.660–0.730) | 64.04 (58.5–69.3) | 65.31 (60.2–70.2) | 1.85 (1.6–2.2) | 0.55 (0.5–0.6) | 61.3 (55.8–66.6) | 67.9 (62.8–72.7) |
| Initial lactate (mmol/L) | 5.1 | 0.609 (0.571–0.645) | 36.91 (31.6–42.5) | 79.95 (75.5–83.9) | 1.84 (1.4–2.4) | 0.79 (0.7–0.9) | 61.3 (54.0–68.2) | 59.6 (55.1–64.0) |
| Maximum Lactate (mmol/L) | 6.9 | 0.642 (0.604–0.678) | 44.16 (38.6–49.8) | 74.25 (69.5–78.6) | 1.72 (1.4–2.1) | 0.75 (0.7–0.8) | 59.6 (53.0–65.9) | 60.8 (56.1–65.3) |
CI confidence interval