TABLE 2.
Fitting Outcomes
| Fitting Outcomes | Year (Start) | Target Range/Estimate | Source |
| A) Prestudy fitting | |||
| Stage 1 (1986–2015): Demographic | |||
| Total population size of sexually active adult population of Grand Cotonou (N) | 1992 | 343,705–465,013 | 39–42 |
| 2002 | 579,325–783,793 | ||
| 2013 | 776,076–1,049,985 | ||
| 2020 | 959,418–1,298,036 | ||
| 2030 | 1,210,305–1,637,471 | ||
| Percentage of women who are pFSW (%) | All | 0.19–0.72 | 27,39–42,46 |
| Number of pFSW (N) | 2012 | 889–1391 | 27 |
| Percentage of women who are active FSW (professional + part-time) (%) | All | 0.48–1.4 | 27,39–42,46 |
| Percentage of men who are clients (%) | All | 7.4–30 | 18,39-42,44 |
| Percentage of women who are NYSA (%) | All | 7.9–20 | 30,45,47 |
| Percentage of men who are NYSA (%) | All | 7–17 | 30,45,47 |
| Stage 2 (1986–2015): Epidemiological | |||
| HIV Prevalence pFSW (%) | 1993 | 48–58 | 16,17,20,26,64 |
| 2002 | 32–46 | ||
| 2008 | 25–34 | ||
| 2015 | 14–22* | ||
| 2017 | 7–13* | ||
| HIV Prevalence clients (%) | 2002 | 6.8–12.0 | 31–33 |
| HIV Prevalence all women (%) | 2011 | 1.3–3.5 | 47 |
| HIV Prevalence all men (%) | 2011 | 0.75–2.9 | 47 |
| HIV Incidence rate pFSW (% infected per person-yr) | 2015 | 0–3 | 48 |
| Stage 2 (1986–2015): ART coverage | |||
| Professional HIV-infected FSW on ART (N) | 2015 | 42–56 | 23 |
| Men and women on ART combined (N) | 2017 | 8524–18,273 | 66 |
| ART coverage of men and women combined (%) | 2011 | 33–52 | 21,66 |
| ART coverage of men and women combined (%) | 2017 | 60–91 | 21,66 |
| Ratio of women to men on ART | 2017 | 1.5–3.0 | 66 |
| B) PrEP/TasP study scenario (2015–2017) | |||
| Person-yr on PrEP (yr) | 2015–2017 | 250 | 25 |
| PrEP initiations (N) | 2015 | 256 | |
| Number on PrEP at end of study (N) | 2017 | 121 | |
| TasP initiations (N) | 2015 | 105 | |
| All pFSW on ART at end of first yr (N) | 2016 | 122 | |
| All pFSW on ART at end of study (N) | 2017 | 137 |
Outcomes and target range or estimate used for the A) pre-PrEP/TasP study model fitting (before 2015) and B) the PrEP/TasP study scenario model fitting (2015–2017).
*
Parameter sets that produced model outcomes meeting at least one of the empirical estimates of HIV prevalence among pFSW in 2015 and 2017 were accepted.